The curious case of declining voters in the 2024 elections

It is generally well-accepted that prices of essential goods, population, GDP, agricultural production, professionals’ salaries and many such parameters only increase every year in a developing and growing country like India unless there is an abnormal, rare event such as Covid-19, which can cause GDP or population or salaries to decline that year. The percentage or rate of increase for each may vary year to year but the absolute number only goes up, barring exceptional conditions.

Similarly, the total number of people who come out to vote in an election is expected to only increase over a five-year election cycle. This is because India’s population continues to grow and the number of people who reach the voting age of 18 increases every year unless there has been a rare demographic disaster resulting in higher numbers of deaths or people fleeing. The total number of people who voted in a constituency in 2024 should then be higher than the number who voted in that constituency in 2019. Just as percentage increase in GDP or salary may vary yearly, voter turnout percentages can go up or down between elections. But the actual number of voters generally only rises between two five-year election cycles in India.

Is it then not intriguing that in nearly one-third of all constituencies in the 2024 election, the total absolute number of voters declined vis-à-vis the 2019 election? An analysis of the 427 constituencies until Phase 5 reveals that in 115 (27%) constituencies, fewer number of people came out to vote than in 2019. It is almost unparalleled in India’s electoral history that in such a large number of constituencies, there is a decline in total voters from the previous election held five years ago. Remember, these are not voter turnout percentages but absolute total numbers of people who voted.

Chart 1 | The chart shows the change in voters and electors in % terms between the 2019 and 2024 elections.

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There is much hullabaloo over voter turnout percentages in the ongoing election. But here is the rub – voter turnout percentage is an insufficient measure to compare across elections. It is because turnout percentage depends on the total number of electors on the electoral rolls. In the Indian context, the term ‘electors’ refers to eligible and registered voters and the term ‘voters’ refer to those that actually got out to vote in the election. The total number of electors in a constituency for an election depends on the number of new voters registered as well as the number of dead or emigrated voters deleted. Both these vary widely from election to election depending on the intensity of electoral roll cleaning by the Election Commission. This is why the more meaningful and intuitive measure for comparison is the change in total number of people who came out to vote across elections.

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Until Phase 5, more than 505 million people voted in 2024 versus 485 million in 2019, an increase of just 4%. In 2019, there was a 12% increase in total voters in these same constituencies vis-à-vis 2014. Clearly, there is a significant decline in the total number of voters in the current election than the norm in previous elections. But the even more baffling finding is that in 115 constituencies, the total number of voters declined from 2019, which is a rarity in a growing country like India. To put it in context, none of these constituencies experienced a decline in total voters in 2014 and only 19 did in 2019. How is it possible that so many constituencies had such a dramatic drop in total voters? Even if one were to adjust by removing small States and Union Territories that one may argue skews the analysis, the finding is still the same – in one-third of all constituencies, the total voters declined vis-à-vis 2019.

Chart 2 | The chart shows the change in voters and electors in % terms between the 2014 and 2019 elections.

Delving further, most of the constituencies where there is a decline in total voters are in six States – Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Uttar Pradesh. A change in total voters in a constituency from the previous election is largely a function of three factors – number of new eligible electors, number of electors who have emigrated out, and percentage of electors who come out to vote. Surely it cannot be the case that there was an inexplicable drop in the number of eligible electors, which normally only follows broad population trends? Neither can it be the case that there was a sudden alarming increase in emigration of people from these 115 constituencies due to economic or other compulsions. None of these constituencies saw a decline in total voters in either the 2014 or 2019 election from the previous election.

So, the only logical explanation is an extreme decline in turnout to cause a reduction in total absolute voters vis-à-vis 2019. The natural follow-up question then is – why is there is a decline in voters in a significant number of constituencies that the Opposition won in 2019 or is expected to get stronger in 2024? Was the reduced turnout voluntary or implicitly coerced? If voluntary, what demographic or other explanations justify such a large and sudden drop in turnout in so many constituencies in States that are seemingly ‘in play’ for 2024? It is not even the case that voters in the initial phases of the elections were apathetic and the turnout started to pick up as elections progressed. The share of constituencies that saw a decline in total voters from 2019 fluctuates up and down across phases.

It is a rarity in the Indian context for constituencies to see a decline in the absolute number of voters between two five-year election cycles. But nearly one-third of all constituencies experienced such a decline in 2024 vis-à-vis 2019. It is best to avoid conjectures and let the Election Commission explain this mysterious trend.

Praveen Chakravarty is Chairman, All India Professionals’ Congress and Data Analytics of the Congress

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