He said the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections "is a repeat of the 2004" general polls.
Jha's pre-poll predictionSanjay Jha said the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will peak at most at 210-215 Lok Sabha seats of the total 543 seats.
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Jha's 11 reasons for INDIA's 'win'Jha shared a "few key takeaways" after the second phase of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 to ascertain why he believes the INDIA bloc will win this time.
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Sanjay Jha, a former Congress leader and party spokesperson, took to social media on Saturday to list down "11 reasons" that he believes could work in favour of the Opposition's INDIA bloc in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. He said the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections "is a repeat of the 2004" general polls.
It was in 2004 when the Congress returned to power at the Centre while ousting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after its eight-year rule.
Jha's pre-poll prediction
Sanjay Jha said the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will peak at most at 210-215 Lok Sabha seats of the total 543 seats. He added that "the BJP could even come below 200".
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"[Uttar Pradesh] UP could deliver a knockout blow. Across India, change seems to be the keyword. Barring an unforeseen black swan moment, the momentum shift indicates a rising support for INDIA alliance. We are seeing a repeat of 2004," Jha said.
Meanwhile, the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi exuded confidence that they will win the 2024 Lok Sabha Election, with “historic" 400 seats for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Jha's 11 reasons for INDIA's 'win'
Jha shared a "few key takeaways" after the second phase of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 to ascertain why he believes the INDIA bloc will win this time.
First, he said the "voter is fed up of lies, spin-doctoring and subpar propaganda". He said the voters "trust no one". However, "after 10 years in power, the trust-deficit with BJP is highest", he claimed.
His second reason stated that "there is a huge fatigue factor with [Prime Minister Narendra] Modi".
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"The standard accusations of dynasty, appeasement and corruption tag is not working at all, as people see the same in the BJP and probably worse. Strange as it may sound, he is both BJP’s asset and a liability," Jha added.
Other nine reasons by Jha pointed at "anti-Muslim/minorities polarization of Modi", " arrogance of power led to Modi", the Prime Minister's "strategic blunder in throttling Congress bank accounts, arresting Arvind Kejriwal, and threatening opposition" and the BJP taking "little" about first-time voters.
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'BJP’s vote-share should dip significantly'
In another point, Jha highlighted how the "floating voter", which "determines elections everywhere", is "leaving the BJP on account of feeling betrayed".
"The floating voter determines elections everywhere; but in India that is the biggest chunk at around 50-60%, unlike the US/UK where the voting patterns are more predictable. Both BJP and Congress stabilize at around a core vote-bank of 20% each," Jha tweeted.
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He added,"...That floating voter, expecting governance, development, jobs and a democratic syncretic society is leaving the BJP on account of feeling betrayed, which explains the big dips in voting in BJP seats in the first two phases."
The former Congress leader said the BJP’s vote-share "should dip significantly, although it may be compensated by gains elsewhere or get more concentrated in safe seats that assure victory".
Read Sanjay Jha's full post here:
'The Momentum factor'
Jha likened politics to sports, saying they both are influenced by momentum. "You win, you keep winning. But that spell does not last forever. Once it reverses, it goes the other way," he added.
He added that right now, the Congress and the INDIA bloc have "a perceptible tailwind, a visible momentum".
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"The BJP could soon have to adopt a Stop-Loss strategy; further phases could spell more bad news, as it usually gets progressively worse. But Modi may have already played his last card of polarization," Jha said.
A "Stop-loss" strategy is used to avoid more losses when the trend goes against the trade decision by automatically exiting the trade at a threshold point.
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