Decoding the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, political analyst Prashant Kishor said that "everybody has something to be happy about" the results.
We predicted around 300 (seats for the BJP), and the numbers were at 240, which was a 20 per cent difference,” he said.
'NUMBERS WERE WRONG, BUT SENSE WAS RIGHT'Prashant Kishor noted there was no widespread anger against PM Modi, and the vote share of the BJP remained unaffected.
However, Prashant Kishor noted some changes are already taking place in the NDA coalition, referring to Modi's victory speech where he talked about NDA’s victory rather than the BJP.
'BJP TO REMAIN A DOMINANT POLITICAL FORCE'The political analyst also noted that the BJP will remain a dominant force for the next 20-30 years.
Decoding the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, political analyst Prashant Kishor said that "everybody has something to be happy about" the results.
Prashant Kishor, who predicted over 300 seats for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections, admitted on India Today TV that his assessment was wrong in terms of numbers. However, he said the overall sentiment remained largely the same, emphasising it was "necessary to understand the things beyond the numbers".
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“Yes, we got it wrong, by at least 20 per cent. We predicted around 300 (seats for the BJP), and the numbers were at 240, which was a 20 per cent difference,” he said.
'NUMBERS WERE WRONG, BUT SENSE WAS RIGHT'
Prashant Kishor noted there was no widespread anger against PM Modi, and the vote share of the BJP remained unaffected.
“There was a lot of discontent (against the BJP), at least in some pockets. There was, may be, a little bit of anger as well. But there was no widespread anger against Modi,” he said.
Prashant Kishor said while his prediction about the BJP's winning seats turned out to be wrong, the party managed to maintain its vote share.
"If you just look beyond the numbers, it's not that wrong (the assessment). Because ultimately, they (BJP) got 36 per cent vote share, which is the status quo.... Modi is back, the NDA government is back. Make no mistake, they are still the number one party,” he said.
'NOT A REVIVAL OF CONGRESS'
In the 2024 polls, the Congress bettered its performance from the last two Lok Sabha elections, winning 99 seats out of the total 543. But according to Prashant Kishor, the result cannot be viewed as a grand revival of the party.
“It has revived (the enthusiasm), to an extent, of those who are Congress supporters. Among them, there is greater confidence that this is a guy (Rahul Gandhi) who can lead us to victory,” Kishor said.
“I repeat, this is the third-worst performance of Congress in its history. Even when the Congress failed during Indira Gandhi's time, they won 154 seats. Getting 99 or 101 or 102 seats is not something that signals a great revival of Congress. It is just showing that they have a chance,” he asserted.
'PM MODI WILL SMOOTHLY RUN COALITION'
Prashant Kishor further noted that the question of stability of the coalition government is misplaced, and Narendra Modi will manage to run the government and even implement bigger reforms.
He pointed out PV Narasimha Rao’s example, who brought major reforms under a coalition government in the early 90s.
“There is a lot of talk about the stability of the coalition. Let's talk about 1991. Narasimha Rao also had a similar number of seats. But the government achieved everything. To those who are asking if PM Modi will do big things, of course he will, because Narasimha Rao has done it,” he said.
However, Prashant Kishor noted some changes are already taking place in the NDA coalition, referring to Modi's victory speech where he talked about NDA’s victory rather than the BJP.
The poll strategist also rejected the argument of Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar exerting control over the NDA, stating there is no situation where they can form a government even if they leave the BJP-led coalition.
ADVANTAGE FOR OPPOSITION IN ASSEMBLY POLLS
Prashant Kishor noted that the Opposition is in an advantageous position in the three states -- Maharashtra, Haryana, and Jharkhand -- which will go to poll later this year.
“The good thing for the Opposition in these states is that the BJP is on the backfoot,” he said.
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“I think Indian leaders understand this, and that's why they said, ‘we will take it at the right time.’ My advice to the Opposition is to bring all your forces and focus on those three states,” he added.
Prashant Kishor said if the BJP fails to save at least two of these three states, the party will face trouble, including internal discontent and allies running away.
'BJP TO REMAIN A DOMINANT POLITICAL FORCE'
The political analyst also noted that the BJP will remain a dominant force for the next 20-30 years.
“The next 20-30 years will be a BJP dominant era. It doesn't change. That doesn't mean that the BJP won't lose elections; they might even go into opposition. But the polity of the country, like it happened with the Congress for 40 years, in the next 20-30 years of our lifetime, the BJP will be the pole around which politics will move. They will remain the dominant political force.”
Published By: Ajmal Published On: Jun 7, 2024
