Nation / Sun, 02 Jun 2024 India Today

Congress says INDIA bloc will win 295 seats, exit polls suggest otherwise

Here too, the Congress assessment isn't too off the mark, if the India Today-Axis My India exit poll is considered. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicts the opposition bloc to win not more than 10 seats in Bihar. While the India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicts the Congress could win seven to nine seats, the AAP would win at best two seats. The BJP is predicted to win eight to 10 seats, while the INDIA bloc is likely to win four to six seats, according to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll. However, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicts that the INDIA bloc would at best win four seats in Haryana, while the BJP could win up to eight seats.

The Congress on Saturday said that the Opposition INDIA bloc would win 295 seats and the BJP-led NDA would be restricted to 235 seats. However, exit polls released later on Saturday (June 1) painted an altogether different picture. Most of the polls projected that the BJP-led NDA would secure more than 350 seats.

The number of seats that the INDIA bloc would win came from Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge after a meeting of the Opposition alliance.

"One should not get confused by the narrative of the BJP. The INDIA bloc will win at least 295 seats. This is based on our assessment", he said.

A poll of five exit polls predicted that the INDIA bloc tally to be at 136 seats.

A health warning. Exit polls do sometimes get the numbers wrong.

Sources provided a state-wise break-up of the seats that the Congress assessment was based on.

Here is how that assessment stacks up against what exit polls are saying.

According to the break-up, the INDIA bloc believes it could win 40 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh.

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll suggests that the NDA would take a lion's share of the seats in the state that sends most MPs to the Lok Sabha. The NDA would get 64 to 67 seats in Uttar Pradesh.

It predicts that the INDIA bloc would get 8 to 12 seats, a far cry from the 40 that the INDIA bloc was expecting in UP.

The Cvoter exit poll predicted a maximum of 17 seats for the INDIA bloc in Uttar Pradesh.

In Rajasthan, the opposition assessment was that it would win seven out of the 25 seats.

Here, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll suggests that the Congress assessment might actually be right. The exit poll predicts the INDIA bloc to be winning five to seven seats in Rajasthan. The CVoter poll suggests that the opposition bloc could get at most four seats in Rajasthan.

While making the claim of winning 295 seats, the INDIA bloc assessed it would bag 24 seats in Maharashtra, which is half of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

Here too, the Congress assessment isn't too off the mark, if the India Today-Axis My India exit poll is considered. The exit poll predicts that the opposition grouping would get 16 to 20 seats in the crucial western state. CVoter survey too backs the estimate, giving the INDIA bloc 23 to 25 seats.

In the eastern state of Bihar, the opposition led by the Rashtriya Janta Dal could win 25 out of 40 seats, the INDIA bloc estimate suggested.

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicts the opposition bloc to win not more than 10 seats in Bihar. This is a far cry from the Congress estimate of 25 seats.

According to the INDIA bloc assessment, the alliance would sweep all the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, 20 seats in Kerala and the lone seat of Puducherry.

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll suggests that the BJP will break into the deep south in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The exit poll suggests that the NDA is likely to win two to four seats in Tamil Nadu and two to three seats in Kerala.

In West Bengal, the INDIA bloc estimated it would win at least 24 out of the 42 Lok Sabha seats. That estimate included the probable seats of the Trinamool Congress, which did not fight the election along with the Congress.

In West Bengal, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicts a good show by the BJP with the party winning 26 to 31 seats. The TMC is predicted to slump to 11 to 14 seats and the CPM and Congress could at best get two seats. Chanakya predicts Trinamool to win around 17 seats and Congress-CPM at most two seats.

The INDIA grouping estimated it would win all the 13 seats of Punjab as well as the seat of Chandigarh. The numbers were based on a good show by the AAP and the Congress.

While the India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicts the Congress could win seven to nine seats, the AAP would win at best two seats. The BJP, meanwhile, could win two to four seats.

In Delhi, the INDIA bloc estimated it would win four of the seven seats.

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicts a near sweep by the BJP in the national capital, with the AAP-Congress alliance to win at best a single seat.

While making the claim of 295 seats, the INDIA bloc parties estimated that they would bag five of the 11 Lok Sabha seats in Chhattisgarh.

However, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicts a sweep of Chhattisgarh by the BJP. It predicts that the Congress could at best win a lone seat here.

The INDIA bloc also believed it would win at least 10 seats in Jharkhand, a state that sends 14 MPs to the Lok Sabha.

The BJP is predicted to win eight to 10 seats, while the INDIA bloc is likely to win four to six seats, according to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll.

In Madhya Pradesh, the opposition alliance estimated it would win seven of the 29 Lok Sabha seats.

The BJP is retaining its hold over Madhya Pradesh by bagging 28–29 seats, according to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll.

The Congress-led alliance calculated it would win seven of the 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana, a state where the BJP was reportedly facing public anger.

However, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicts that the INDIA bloc would at best win four seats in Haryana, while the BJP could win up to eight seats. The Chanakya exit poll also predicts that the Congress would win around four seats.

The Congress's claim of the 295 seats was based on the estimate that the INDIA bloc would win 15 to 16 Lok Sabha seats of the 28 seats in Karnataka.

However, the India Today-Axis My India exit poll suggests that the Congress-led grouping would be restricted to three to five seats. It predicts that the NDA is going to win 23 to 25 seats. The BJP had alone won 25 seats in Karnataka in the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

The CVoter exit poll too predicts that the INDIA bloc would be restricted to three to five seats in Karnataka.

The poll of top five exit polls predicted 96 to 182 seats for the Opposition INDIA bloc in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Mallikarjun Kharge's claim of 295 seats for the INDIA bloc parties was based on estimates by the opposition parties. The exit polls predict something altogether different. Who is right will be known on June 4 when the EVMs reveal people's mandate.

Published By: Sushim Mukul Published On: Jun 2, 2024