Donald Trump to be declared Republican nominee at Milwaukee convention

Milwaukee, Wisconsin: At the end of May, Donald Trump was convicted in a business fraud/campaign finance violation case. The judge in New York announced July 11 as the date of sentencing, five days before the Republican National Convention was to kick off, even as Trump faced the prospect of going to trial in other cases in Washington DC, Florida and Georgia. Donald Trump survived an assassination bid that has galvanised his base, and positioned him as the clear frontrunner for elections scheduled for November. (REUTERS)

A month-and-a-half later, as Trump arrived in Wisconsin’s Milwaukee for his party’s convention that kicked off on Monday, American politics has changed. At the end of June, Trump had a successful debate against a visibly old and struggling Joe Biden, now under pressure from his own party to quit the race. In early July, Trump had a set of legal wins, including a major Supreme Court verdict that expansively defines presidential immunity to cover all “official acts”; the judge in New York also agreed to postpone the decision on his sentencing and trials in other cases won’t commence till the election. And this weekend, Trump survived an assassination bid that has galvanised his base and positioned him as the clear frontrunner for elections scheduled for November.

It is this new mood, a sense of celebration but also of determination, a growing recognition that White House is within grasp for them, that greets you in this swing state of Wisconsin where over 2,400 Republican delegates are gathering at Fiserv Forum, the home of the Milwaukee Bucks. Another 50,000 people are expected to attend. The event, already categorised as a “national special security event”, is witnessing additional security arrangements after Saturday’s shooting. Billboards and placards, flags and badges, with the Make America Great Again (MAGA) slogan, are emblazoned everywhere. But there is one image that dominates and defines the city, of Donald Trump.

The convention delegates will nominate Trump as their candidate on Thursday. A range of Republican leaders including Trump’s primary rivals, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy will speak through the convention week. Trump will announce his vice presidential pick and attempt to send out a message of unity to tap into the current national mood and expand his political map.

Trump’s plan: Attack and unite

After the shooting, the Trump campaign immediately made it clear that the convention was on track. And on Sunday, Trump landed in Milwaukee. Posting on Truth Social, he said, “Based on yesterday’s terrible events, I was going to delay my trip to Wisconsin, and The Republican National Convention, by two days, but have just decided that I cannot allow a “shooter,” or potential assassin, to force change to scheduling, or anything else. Therefore, I will be leaving for Milwaukee, as scheduled.”

Trump’s stamp over the convention is visible in the structure and theme of each day’s events.

On Monday, the theme is “Make America Wealthy Once Again”. Convention speakers can be expected to attack the Biden administration for inflation and contrast it with both the previous Trump administration’s economic record and the campaign’s promise of tax cuts, deregulation, oil and gas-based energy policies, trade tariffs particularly against China, and jobs for American workers.

On Tuesday, the theme is “Make America Safe Once Again”. Convention speakers are likely to attack Biden administration for its immigration policies, cast the immigration from the southern border as an “invasion”, promise the biggest deportation exercise in American history under Trump.

On Wednesday, the theme of the convention is “Make America Strong Once Again”. Convention speakers will slam the Biden administration for the nature of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan; the involvement in the Ukraine war without an endgame; the rise of China; and its approach towards the Israel-Hamas war and alleged appeasement of Iran. In contrast, Trump’s loyalists will portray his administration as a period when America didn’t start wars, took on adversaries such as China, and portray the Republican nominee as the only one capable of stopping another World War against a Russia-China-North Korea-Iran axis.

And on Thursday, when delegates nominate him and Trump speaks, the convention theme is “Make America Great Once Again”, the credo of the ideological movement that Trump has both shaped and is a product of. Trump can be expected to attack Biden for “being the worst president in American history”, project America as a country in decline and crisis, and sell himself as the saviour.

But this is where the assassination bid may lead to a twist.

The Trump campaign believes that Saturday’s shooting offers an opportunity to the Republican nominee to expand his base and reach out to swing voters with a message of moderation and unity. In a campaign memo, Trump’s senior advisers asked supporters to tone down their radical rhetoric and Trump’s own messages have, unusually, focused on unity rather than division.

In an interview with Washington Examiner on his way from New Jersey to Milwaukee on Sunday, Trump said, “It is a chance to bring the country together. I was given that chance…This is a chance to bring the whole country, even the whole world, together.” The former president said that he was rewriting his whole convention speech. “The speech will be a lot different, a lot different than it would’ve been two days ago.”

For the first time, in the interview, Trump also recounted his experience of the shooting and its aftermath, including the moment when he got up and pumped his fist. “The energy coming from the people there in that moment, they just stood there; it’s hard to describe what that felt like, but I knew the world was looking. I knew that history would judge this, and I knew I had to let them know we are OK,” he said.

How Trump caters to what often appears to be his perpetually angry base with the kind of polarising rhetoric that is his staple, while reaching out to voters outside his fold who have been shocked at the assassination bid and can be potentially turned towards the Republican platform, will be the former president’s key test this week.

The running mate

But the other most keenly awaited announcement at the convention is that of Trump’s running mate. The former president is expected to announce the decision on Monday night. While unpredictability is an integral part of Trump’s personality and decision-making and he can pull off a surprise, he appears to have narrowed down on three, or perhaps four, candidates for now.

JD Vance, a first time Senator from Ohio, shot into fame as the author of Hillbilly Elegy, widely hailed as among the best books that captured the anxieties and hopes of poorer White working class men in middle America, struggling with broken families, economic dislocation and addiction crises. This is the segment of voters that was widely seen as catapulting Trump to power in 2016. Vance was then a fervent critic of Trump, but has evolved to embrace the leader. He also became the most ardent champion of Trump’s worldview — on trade, immigration and foreign policy — and has now become a mentor and supporter of a younger generation of national conservatives. Vance is also particularly close to Trump’s son Donald Trump junior who is advocating for his selection.

If Trump is motivated by a desire to pick an ideological and political successor, introduce a younger candidate in a race marked by a battle between old men, and have a particularly vigorous and articulate deputy who can take on Vice President Kamala Harris in a debate, the 39-year-old Vance may be the man. Vance’s wife, incidentally, is of Indian-origin. But what may go against Vance is both his past record of criticism against Trump, his political inexperience, and the fact that he doesn’t add to Trump’s already existing support base.

If Trump is motivated by a desire to expand the map, tap into the growing Hispanic support for his candidacy, and appeal to national security Republicans, his pick may be Marco Rubio, the Senator from Florida who had battled Trump in the 2016 primary.

The Cuban-American is known in Washington DC’s policy corridors, can appeal to establishment Republicans, and can be an effective campaigner in key swing states with a strong Hispanic population such as Arizona and Nevada. But what goes against Rubio is both his past criticism of Trump, though he did become an ally during Trump’s presidency, and the fact that rules don’t allow both the presidential and vice presidential nominee to be from the same state, which, in this case, is Florida.

Doug Burgum, the wealthy governor of North Dakota and a contender in the Republican primaries for this cycle, is the third contender for VP. A successful entrepreneur, Burgum is low-profile. He appeals to moderate Republicans and big business; he isn’t controversial; he has a limited base of his own and therefore will pose no threat to Trump; and he has been an effective spokesperson for Trump in recent weeks on television networks. Key Republican business leaders are lobbying for Burgum. If Trump, confident in his victory, is seeking a political non-entity whose loyalty will be to the president, Burgum may be the man. His disadvantage: for the very same reason, he brings little value to the ticket on his own.

And finally, Tim Scott, a Black senator from South Carolina and a contender in the Republican primaries this year before he dropped out to endorse Trump, remains a possible pick. If Trump factors in Biden dropping out and a possible Kamala Harris candidacy, Scott may be useful for the Republican ticket in appealing to Black men, a constituency that has moved to Trump in greater numbers than 2016 and 2020, and countering criticism of the party being a White majoritarian outfit. But Scott isn’t a particularly effective speaker and his possibility appears to have diminished in recent weeks.

But irrespective of the vice presidential pick, and irrespective of the nature of the party’s platform that’s adopted, this convention is fundamentally about one man who has captured and reshaped America’s oldest party into his own image in just eight short years. The Milwaukee convention is when the older Republican establishment will fully fade away, and MAGA movement will effect a full takeover of GOP, all personified by Donald Trump - the 45th president who will, this week, become the party’s official candidate to become the 47th president of the United States.