Consequently, while India Today-Axis My India projects a massive victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the exit poll shows a slip in Muslim votes for the saffron side.
The NDA received only about nine per cent of the Muslim votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
The NDA is expected to lose about six per cent of Muslim votes in the state.
In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress will lose two per cent of Muslim votes, with the NDA and INDIA bloc taking a per cent apiece.
Four per cent of the NDA’s and two per cent of other parties’ Muslim votes will go to the INDIA bloc in Jharkhand.
The BJP made Muslims a large part of its 2024 Lok Sabha campaign, with various party leaders and even Prime Minister Narendra Modi making controversial statements about the community. Consequently, while India Today-Axis My India projects a massive victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the exit poll shows a slip in Muslim votes for the saffron side. The NDA received only about nine per cent of the Muslim votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This is projected to decrease to just six per cent in the 2024 elections.
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The Congress-led INDIA bloc, on the other hand, registered a big jump in these votes. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra and “Save the Constitution” appeal seemingly helped the party win the trust of Muslim voters over other regional parties. Notably, the INDIA bloc is expected to see a jump of almost 24 per cent in Muslim votes — increasing from 52 per cent in 2019 to 76 per cent in the 2024 projections.
According to the exit poll data, the INDIA bloc this time will gain an additional 38 per cent of Muslim votes in Uttar Pradesh, most (34 per cent) of it at the cost of the Bahujan Samaj Party. The BSP contested as a separate stakeholder in UP and even pitched Muslim candidates in pockets. This, however, appears not to have worked for Mayawati’s party.
The NDA is expected to lose about six per cent of Muslim votes in the state. This is despite the BJP flaunting steps it has taken to empower Muslim women through the triple talaq ban and several non-discriminatory pro-poor outreach programs.
Bihar will also see a similar trend. The INDIA combine will gain an additional 16 per cent of Muslim votes — of this, five per cent will bleed from the NDA and 11 per cent from other parties. In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress will lose two per cent of Muslim votes, with the NDA and INDIA bloc taking a per cent apiece. Four per cent of the NDA’s and two per cent of other parties’ Muslim votes will go to the INDIA bloc in Jharkhand.
Meanwhile, the NDA is predicted to increase votes from Scheduled Tribes, Other Backward Classes, and general caste voters. ST votes for the NDA will increase from 47 per cent to 48 per cent, OBC votes from 56 per cent to 58 per cent, general caste votes from 60 per cent to 64 per cent, and other castes’ votes for the NDA surged from 44 per cent to 48 per cent in the 2024 elections.
