Private weather forecaster Skymet on Tuesday predicted ‘normal’ monsoon rainfall during June-September this year, after below-monsoon and patchy rains witnessed last year.
Rainfall in the forthcoming monsoon season is likely to be 102% of the benchmark long period average (LPA) with an average error margin of +/- 5%, Skymet stated.
In addition, northeast India is expected to receive less than normal rainfall during the first half of monsoon months.
Nearly half of the country’s farmland depends on monsoon rains for cultivation of kharif crops.
In addition, adequate monsoon rains also provide sufficient soil moisture for the rabi or winter crops – wheat, pulses and oilseeds sowing.
Private weather forecaster Skymet on Tuesday predicted ‘normal’ monsoon rainfall during June-September this year, after below-monsoon and patchy rains witnessed last year. This augurs well for the agriculture sector which saw 4.4% annual decline in output in 2023-24 cop year (July-June), after steady rise witnessed for six straight years. Robust monsoon could also have a positive impact on rural consumption demand which has rekained tepid for several quarters, and is believed to be on the cusp of a revival.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is likely to announce its first forecast for this year’s monsoon in the next couple of days.
Rainfall in the forthcoming monsoon season is likely to be 102% of the benchmark long period average (LPA) with an average error margin of +/- 5%, Skymet stated. Rainfall in the range of 96-104% of LPA is considered normal.
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However, monsoon season may start with risk of impairment, the agency said, and attributed this to the “remnant impacts of El Nino phenomenon.” The second half of the season (August-September) will, however, have an “overwhelming edge” over the primal (June-July) phase, it said.
If the forecasts hold good, it is expected to boost forthcoming kharif crops mainly paddy, pulses , oilseeds, soybean and cotton which allay fear of rise in food prices. Of course, the link between the quantum of rainfall on farm production have over the years become less remarkable, but the distribution pattern still has a significant bearing on crop yields. Last year, for example, after surplus in July, August saw scanty rains, adversely impacting paddy and pulses when the crops were at the maturing stage.
According to Skymet, there would be ‘sufficiently good rains’ in the coming season in southern, western, and north-western regions of the country, which includes the agriculturally important Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. However the eastern states such as Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal would be at risk of ‘deficit’ rainfall during peak monsoon months of July-August. In addition, northeast India is expected to receive less than normal rainfall during the first half of monsoon months.
Gross value added in “agriculture and allied sectors” for FY24 is projected to fall by 0.7%, the first contraction after several years, while the sectoral GVA grew 4.7% in FY23. Crops account for roughly 55% of agri GVA.
Nearly half of the country’s farmland depends on monsoon rains for cultivation of kharif crops. In addition, adequate monsoon rains also provide sufficient soil moisture for the rabi or winter crops – wheat, pulses and oilseeds sowing.
“El Nino is swiftly flipping over to La Nina. And, monsoon circulation tends to be stronger during La Nina years.” Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet said, adding that transition from super El Nino to strong La Nina has historically tended to produce a ‘decent monsoon’.
The forecast for normal monsoon comes after the IMD recently predicted that in the April-June period, various parts of the country could record 10-20 heatwave days, compared to the normal four to eight days which is expected to hit summer crops yield.
Overall rainfall during June-September last year was ‘below normal’ at 94% of the LPA. In terms of monthly distribution, monthly rainfall over the country was 91% of LPA in June, 113% of LPA in July, 64% of LPA in August, and 113% of LPA in September.
IMD classifies ‘normal’ rainfall between 96% and 104% of LPA. Rainfall between 90%-95% is considered ‘below normal’ while precipitation below 90% of LPA is termed ‘deficient’.
Rainfall received between 104%-110% of benchmark fall in sthe ‘above normal’ category while volume of rainfall above 110% of LPA is referred to as ‘excess’. The LPA is average rainfall received during 1971-2020 at 87 centimetres.
