It is the local issues that are coming to the fore in several constituencies, making it a Modi versus local battle.
“When you look at it closely, these fights do not reflect a fight between the BJP and the Congress nationally.
An entrepreneur in Mandaava in Jhunjhunu said, “Had Modi not been there, it would have been difficult for the BJP to win.
In Sikar, it is a Jat versus Jat fight.
As a Jat farmer put it, ”I am not going to vote for the candidate but for Modi.
2024 is not 2014 or 2019. In eastern Rajasthan and the Jat-dominated Shekhawati region, many people say they will vote for Prime Minister Narendra Modi but they are not as vocal or aggressive as before. Perhaps, there is a sense of acknowledgement that the BJP is here to comfortably win and there is no need to sharply define one’s position in public.
Yet, moving through Dausa, Sikar, Churu and Jhunjhunu — the last three constitute the Shekhawati area — there was not even one person who did not admit that there was a “takkar (contest)” this time. It is the local issues that are coming to the fore in several constituencies, making it a Modi versus local battle.
This is how a political wag described it. “When you look at it closely, these fights do not reflect a fight between the BJP and the Congress nationally. It is a heavyweight candidate or a local group rivalry that seems to be overtaking the Modi factor, converting it into a takkar.” In the last two general elections — which the BJP swept, winning 25 out of 25 — the Modi factor was able to subsume these local issues and may yet do so in many constituencies.
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“Modi thoda struggle mein aa gaye hain (Modi is struggling a little),” said a shopkeeper, a pro-BJP Brahmin manning a shop near the famous Khatu Shyamji Mandir in Sikar district, where, in the middle of a hot afternoon, hundreds of devotees were trying to catch a glimpse of the highly revered local deity.
An entrepreneur in Mandaava in Jhunjhunu said, “Had Modi not been there, it would have been difficult for the BJP to win. This time, there is no junoon (enthusiasm).” A BJP leader articulated the sense on the ground, saying, “It may not change the direction of the wind, but shifts are being felt this time.”
There are almost nine to 10 Lok Sabha constituencies in Rajasthan, where a contest can be expected. Among these seats are Dausa, Dholpur, Tonk, Sikar, Churu, Jhunjhunu, Nagaur, Banswara, and Jalore-Sirohi. In Jalore-Sirohi, it is former Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s son Vaibhav who is trying his luck once again, having lost from Jodhpur in 2019. This time, the BJP has fielded a first-timer, district functionary Lumbaram Choudhary, after eliminating its strong leader and three-time winner Devji Patel from the race. The move raised many an eyebrow in both the Congress and the BJP.
Caste and community factors
But does the state have surprises in store? In Sikar, it is a Jat versus Jat fight. Though he lost the Assembly elections, suddenly many Jats are seeing virtue in Amra Ram, a CPI(M) candidate supported by the Congress. Pitted against two-time winner Swami Sumedhanand, who has of late lost ground, Amra Ram, some say, “has done people’s work” and is accessible.
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The Churu fight has become a visceral Jat versus Rajput battle between Rahul Kaswan and the BJP’s Rajput leader Rajendra Rathore who had his way and replaced Kaswan with paralympic athlete Devendra Jhajharia. Unlike UP, where the Rajputs are on the warpath against the BJP, in Shekhawati, they are batting for the BJP and it is the Jats who are on the warpath.
Three men sitting on a bench outside the famous Balaji temple in Salasar, happily chatting away, suddenly started to criticise each other when asked about elections. One was a Jat who said he would vote for the Congress and the other a Rajput in the BJP’s corner, making it an issue of Jat versus Rajput pride.
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In Jhunjhunu, too, many BJP supporters bemoaned the BJP’s candidate Shubhkaran Choudhary who is seen as no match for Jhunjhunu MLA Brajendra Ola who is the son of Shish Ram Ola who won elections from here half a dozen times. As a Jat farmer put it, ”I am not going to vote for the candidate but for Modi. But they could have given a better candidate.”
In Dausa, one of the seats the Congress has a chance of winning, party leader Sachin Pilot organised a huge rally addressed by Priyanka Vadra Gandhi on April 15. It is a constituency that his father Rajesh Pilot once represented and he was elected from here in 2004 at the age of 26. The return of Gujjars to Pilot, a community he belongs to, was visible at the rally and beyond in the Shekhawati region. Having voted for Sachin in 2018 thinking he would become the CM, they deserted the Congress in last year’s Assembly elections once it became apparent that he would not hold the top job even if the party returned to power.
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Many Gujjars are making common cause with unhappy Jats, and Dalits, who are looking at the Congress as an option, particularly in constituencies where they feel they can strengthen Pilot’s leadership. The Jats are divided this time, unhappy with the way the BJP treated them during the farmers’ agitation. They also feel they have not got their due in the recently constituted ministry in Jaipur. Some said the Jats, known for their pragmatism, might return to the BJP at the last moment given that the party’s formidable election machinery is known for handling the last mile better than the Congress.
In Sikar district’s Nehra ki Dhani village, half a dozen young Dalit men, huddled in an 8×8 kirana shop, said they were going to vote for the Congress. “We don’t have work,” one of them said with some bitterness. “I am a graduate and can’t get a job. I have to live off my father’s income, he is a school principal.” What really has them worried is that if Modi comes back to power “he may change the Constitution and our reservations may go”. The BJP’s “400 seat paar” call has fueled these apprehensions.
But whatever may be the outcome of these contests, it is apparent that the BJP’s opponents are much more open in their criticism than five years ago. And there is a possibility of a takkar in almost one-third of Rajasthan’s Lok Sabha constituencies this time.
