Iran's missile blitz: How Israel is planning its 'revenge'

An anti-missile system operates after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel. (Reuters photo)

Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said the Iranian weekend strike 'will be met with a response'. According to reports, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on April 15 summoned his war cabinet for the second time in less than 24 hours to weigh a response to Iran's missile and drone attack.

Iran launched hundreds of drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles at Israel over the weekend after the April 1 Israeli strike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus.

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In a stern warning, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) rear admiral Daniel Hagari too said that the country will not allow an attack of that magnitude against it to pass without a reaction.

Israel is currently under immense international pressure not to escalate the conflict further.

Attack of that magnitude won't be passed without a reaction: Israel

Giving out no specific details, Israel's military chief Halevi said that the country will respond to Iran's weekend attack. "Iran wanted to harm the strategic capabilities of the State of Israel — that is something that had not happened before. We were prepared for the 'Iron Shield' operation — preparation that brought Iran to also encounter aerial superiority," Halevi said, referring to the effort to counter the Iran blitz by its military code name.

He refrained from elaborating on when and how Israel plans to retaliate even as world leaders are urging against it. "Israel is considering its next steps and the Iranian strike will be met with a response," Halevi said as he met soldiers at the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel, where four Iranian ballistic missiles struck during the attack on April 14.

"We are looking ahead, we are considering our steps, and this launch of so many missiles, cruise missiles, and UAVs into the territory of the State of Israel will be met with a response," he added.

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Israel Defense Forces (IDF) rear admiral Daniel Hagari made it clear that Israel is keeping its options open. "Over the last few hours we approved operational plans for both offensive and defensive action," he said.

Amid reports that Israel has vowed to respond against Iranian attack, Hagari said that IDF continues to be prepared and alert for the defense of the country. "We are assessing the situation and following the developments. We are in a war on multiple fronts. The threats change in their scale and frequency,” he added.

"Israel will not allow an attack of that magnitude against it to pass without a reaction," he warned.

According to the IDF, Iran's attack included 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles. "Ninety nine percent of the drones and missiles were intercepted by Israel's own air defenses and warplanes and in coordination with a US-led coalition of partners," the military said.

How is Israel likely to respond & what should it consider

According to a report on The Guardian, there are three main factors Israel must weigh up before it responds.

"One, how Iran will respond, since they have made it very clear that Israeli retaliation will be met with an even harsher reaction," said Raz Zimmit, a research fellow at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies who focuses on Iran. "Secondly, the US position. Biden is not interested in escalation and wants to close this round of fighting. And third, ever since (October 7), Israel has been trying to avoid opening new fronts so it can focus on fighting Hamas in Gaza," he added.

A direct attack on military or infrastructure targets inside Iran is certain to trigger an all-out war. According to the report, Israel is likely to consider covert actions including cyber-attacks and hitting Iranian assets in third countries such as Syria. It has already used these against Iran in the past. Another action on the cards is not claiming responsibility for attacks on drone manufacturing facilities.

In case Israel opts to go with the above actions, it would be difficult for Iran to directly blame Tel Aviv for such attacks as it would mean admitting that the country is vulnerable to Israeli operations on its soil.

US position on Israel-Iran conflict

The United States helped Israel blunt the Iranian attack during the weekend. However, President Joe Biden told Netanyahu that the US will not participate in an Israeli counter-strike.

Netanyahu, in a conversation with US House Majority leader Steve Scalise, said that "Israel will do whatever is required to defend itself," the prime minister’s office announced. The United States, however, urged Israel to show restraint as it seeks to build a broad diplomatic response.

"Any response is up to Israel to decide but we don't want to see escalation. We obviously will take necessary measures to protect our forces in the region," Pentagon press secretary Major General Pat Ryder said.

In the recent past, Israeli officials have already complained that they are not receiving requested weaponry from the US. The United States gives $3.8 billion in annual military assistance to Israel, its longtime ally.

"The US doesn't seek escalation but it would continue to support Israel's security," US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, as he pledged to step up the diplomatic efforts against Iran.

'Era of strategic patience is over': Iran

Iran said it had dealt heavy blows to Israel and hailed the weekend operation as 'successful'. "Iran's victorious ... operation means that the era of strategic patience is over," the Iranian president's political deputy, Mohammad Jamshidi wrote on X, formerly Twitter. "Now the equation has changed. Targeting Iranian personnel and assets by the regime will be met with a direct and punishing response."

Iran President Ebrahim Raisi too termed the operation 'succesful' and warned of any further step against the country.

"Islamic Republic targeted military bases of usurping regime based on a legitimate right to defend Iran & a 1st step in a successful operation. I warn that any new steps taken against the interests of Iranian nation will be met with a stronger response bringing the enemy's regret," he posted on X.

According to western estimates, Iran is one of the most militarised states in the middle-east, with a standing army of at least 5,80,000 and a stockpile of 3,000 ballistic missiles.

While Iranian President and his political deputy have issued stern warning, its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made it very clear over the last six months of war in Gaza that Iran does not wish to be dragged into a wider conflict.

How have Israel-Iran ties evolved over the years?

Israel and Iran shared a relatively amicable relationship since the former's establishment in 1948. Iran was the second country, after Turkey, which recognized Israel as a sovereign state. But the 1979 Islamic revolution changed the picture entirely. The ties between Israel and Iran turned sour with the latter frequently calling for the Jewish nation's destruction.

The former allies are now archenemies with Israel having launched an airstrike on Iran's consulate building on April 1.