Lok Sabha Election Result Shocker In Haryana: BJP’s Story Is More Than The Return Of the Jats

The trends of the Lok Sabha election results show more than half the seats of Haryana have slipped out of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) hands. The BJP had won all 10 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. But this time, the trends show the BJP is leading in five, while the INDIA bloc is leading in five in this Jat land.

Former Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar from Karnal is among the few from the BJP who are leading. Meanwhile, Deepender Hooda, son of Congress’s former CM Bhupinder Hooda, is ahead from Rohtak — a prestige battle for his family where he lost in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Congress’s Raj Babbar is also ahead in Gurgaon, next to the national capital. In spite of his personal charisma and track record that people of Kurukshetra swear by, initial trends show he is trailing after he switched sides from the Congress and joined the BJP just ahead of the election.

So what makes Haryana overwhelmingly choose the Congress, if we go by the trends? It is a cocktail of anti-incumbency, hurt Jat sentiments and farmer disenchantment.

HURT JAT SENTIMENT

Jats form approximately 27% of the state’s population and have a strong presence in 40 of the 90 Assembly segments. But in 2014, the BJP brought an end to its dominance in state politics where the BJP ensured a non-Jat coalition consolidated against the Jats, with even a non-Jat Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar getting the top job. The Jats took it as an insult. Since the creation of Haryana, Jat CMs ruled the state for 33 years.

A sudden throw into political insignificance after determining which way Haryana’s politics will flow has hurt this 27% population. Last time, they voted considering their religion. But it seems the Hooda’s appeal to vote considering their caste has worked this time.

FARMER DISENCHANTMENT

The farmer disenchantment is palpable in many seats across Haryana, particularly close to the border of Punjab. In spite of the welfare measures by the Modi government and taking back the three contentious farm laws, the scars of a year-long fight over it have left a bad taste in the mouths of many farmers who were predominantly from Punjab and Haryana. Moreover, their demand for a law on Minimum Support Price (MSP), which the Centre is not ready to yield, makes the relation even bitter.

In fact, many BJP and JJP (a Jat party, which faces the farmers’ ire for joining hands with the BJP in 2019) leaders faced farmers’ protests during their campaign. What made it worse was the comments by Khattar when he said, “Kuch log sarfire aese hote hain jo apni dabangai chalate hain (some people are crazy and want to express their authority)…”

Be it Rohtak BJP candidate Arvind Kumar Sharma or Sirsa candidate Ashok Tanwar — all have faced farmers’ protests this time.

ANTI-INCUMBENCY & JUGGLING ROLES

Probably what finally went against the BJP in Haryana was 10 years of anti-incumbency. Sensing that months before the Lok Sabha election, the BJP leadership changed the CM, bringing in Nayab Singh Saini. But that didn’t seem to have worked.

What else would explain the BJP trailing from Gurgaon where neither Jat anger nor farmer disenchantment could have influenced? A fatigue with the Khattar government, replaced by a man who is a Khattar protege didn’t seem to have undone it much.

What further complicated the matter was Saini, also state president of the BJP, was given additional duties and no one at the helm for the organization job. Saini himself has fought a by-poll after he was made a CM overnight, which left very little time to devote to the organisation. Additionally, he was changed to the post of BJP president pretty late in October 2023, leaving him very little time to focus on ‘sangathan’ — a core factor in the BJP’s electoral fights, before he was asked to take the top job.