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Nation / Fri, 31 May 2024 The Quint

Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Four Factors That Will Decide West Bengal Results

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had won 128 of the 294 assembly segments in the state, while the TMC won 158. In the 2021 assembly elections, the BJP won 77 seats with its vote share dropping to 38 percent. The region accounts for a total of eight parliamentary seats and about 40 assembly segments. In 2019, the BJP won five of these, winning in 31 assembly segments. Suvendu has since shifted to the TMC and was the leader of opposition (LoP) in the outgoing West Bengal assembly.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had won 128 of the 294 assembly segments in the state, while the TMC won 158. At the time, the BJP had secured approximately 40 percent of the vote share and with the TMC being ahead by three percentage points at 43 percent.

In the 2021 assembly elections, the BJP won 77 seats with its vote share dropping to 38 percent. Meanwhile, the TMC bettered its 2016 performance by winning 215 seats and 48 percent vote share.

An important reason for the difference in the BJP and TMC voting patterns in the 2019 and 2021 election is the fact that voters, like in many other states, identified the difference between a national and state election. The 2019 election which, much like this one, was being fought on Prime Minister’s face, swung some seats, and considerably reduced margins in others.

For example, one of the key regions that demonstrated this is the SC/ST- dominated belt of Junglemahal which consists of the Purulia, Jhargram, Bankura and East and West Medinipur districts. The region accounts for a total of eight parliamentary seats and about 40 assembly segments. In 2019, the BJP won five of these, winning in 31 assembly segments. In 2021, the TMC hit back winning 25 assembly seats in the region.

What is significant is that two of the three seats that the TMC won in 2019- Tamluk and Kanthi- were won by members of Suvendu Adhikari’s family. Suvendu has since shifted to the TMC and was the leader of opposition (LoP) in the outgoing West Bengal assembly.

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