Lok Sabha elections: Modi, Shah leading from the front in BJP’s high-voltage election campaign

Is the current election campaign establishing the pecking order in the BJP on succession? While it is difficult to predict with any degree of precision in politics, the number game does reveal an interesting picture. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, a day after being released on interim bail by the Supreme Court to campaign in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, set the cat among the pigeons when he raised questions about the BJP's leadership succession plan, highlighting the fact that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will turn 75 on September 17th. Prime Minister Narendra Modi with home minister Amit Shah.(PTI)

Kejriwal pointed out the Prime Minister’s own rule mandating retirement for party leaders at 75, citing the examples of superannuated leaders like LK Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi. Speculating on potential leadership changes within BJP, Kejriwal suggested that if the party forms the government, Yogi Adityanath could be sidelined in favour of Amit Shah as the new prime minister.

Unlock exclusive access to the latest news on India's general elections, only on the HT App. Download Now! Download Now!

In reply, the BJP for the first time affirmed that PM Modi won't retire at 75. Home minister Amit Shah was categorical in his denial. "The people of this country, be it from East, West, North, South or Northeast, are standing with PM Modi. All the leaders of the INDI alliance know that we are going to cross 400 seats and Modi ji will become the PM of this country for the third time, that is why they are spreading this type of misconception," he said.

Also read: Lok Sabha elections 2024: How will the lack of momentum in polling affect BJP, INDIA bloc?

There is little doubt, however, that the 2024 general election campaign blitz is largely being powered by the Modi-Shah duo, who have run the party and the government as a joint team.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has addressed more than double the number of election rallies attended by his Congress rivals put together. Following close on his heels is the Prime Minister’s closest aide, Amit Shah. Modi addressed 83 election rallies across 18 states and Union Territories between March 31 and May 5 – the last campaign date for the third phase of elections. During the same period, Amit Shah, the party’s principal political strategist, attended 66 election events.

These numbers fare well against their Congress counterparts, Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi. In comparison -- or shall we say in contrast -- with the Wayanad MP – who is now also trying his hand as Congress candidate from Rae Bareli, this figure stands at 40. With Priyanka as the main speaker at 29 political rallies, Modi was higher than the Gandhi siblings put together.

Also read: Lok Sabha election 2024: Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Karnataka see history come alive

Post the third phase of polling, it is very clear that this Lok Sabha election is about the complete dominance of the Narendra Modi -Amit Shah duo as campaigners for the BJP.. The rest of the BJP leaders follow later.

Says Jagdish Shetty, member BJP, national General Secretary, Virat Hindustan Sangam, and a social influencer, who is close to Subrmaniam Swamy: "This is the Modi-Shah style. They have run the organization and the government like this. It has now extended to the elections. All the other prominent leaders in the party have been sidelined. Sometimes, this can turn out to be counter-productive.”

Under the circumstances, Shetty told this reporter that reaching the 300-plus target for the BJP "is a huge task," one that the party may not be able to reach.

With 12 rallies, Maharashtra – considered a swing state – appeared on the top of Prime Minister Modi’s list during the first three phases. He addressed 10 rallies in Uttar Pradesh that sends the highest 80 MPs in the Lok Sabha, followed by Karnataka and Rajasthan at eight, Bihar and West Bengal (six), and Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat (six).

Party watchers said that the BJP leaders have particularly focused on the Hindi-speaking states, and for good reason. In the Lok Sabha, the BJP has 170 of the 218 seats from the Hindi heartland states.

BJP leaders are also guarding against overkill. For instance, the fourth phase of Lok Sabha election in Madhya Pradesh, which will take place on May 13, has not seen either Modi or Shah campaigning in the state as the party has not scheduled their visit leaving the canvassing to the state and local leaders.

Likewise, there are no high-profile campaigning programmes of other national leaders like party president JP Nadda, other than a few road shows, while defence minister Rajnath Singh has been more involved in managing his own constituency, Lucknow.

Also read: Lok Sabha elections 2024: How political families dominate India's discourse

To be sure, some local BJP units like Chandigarh have called for the inclusion of Bhojpuri stars like Manoj Tiwari and Ravi Kishan, in addition to defence minister Rajnath Singh and party president JP Nadda.

Says political commentator and policy analyst, Sanjay Baru: "The Modi-Shah way of election campaigning, is the way they run the party and the government. It’s a two-man show. I can sense a disquiet among the others in the party, who are hardly campaigning. Afterall, there are former chief ministers and BJP party presidents, who don’t have much of a role to play. They cannot be too happy with such a situation.”

BJP spokesman, Nalin Kohli, however, rubbished Kejriwal’s statement and played down the campaign numbers, which suggest that the two biggies in the BJP are hogging the limelight.

"It is but natural that PM Modi is the biggest star campaigner because it is his government, leadership and achievements that point to a third term for the party," he said.

He added, however, that many BJP leaders, including chief ministers and central ministers are pretty much part of the election campaign. “A campaign has several layers; large rallies, road shows, small, focused meetings, personal contract programmes and all leaders are involved in their own way. It is wrong to suggest that only the Prime Minister and the home minister are campaigning for the elections.”

As for Kejriwal’s statement on the war of succession, Kohli told this reporter that the Delhi chief minister "had no credibility and this is evident from the fact that he frequently issues contradictory statements".