He defeated the Maldives’ ‘pro-India’ former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP).
In the presidential election last year, Muizzu had stood on behalf of former President Abdulla Yameen, who is also pro-China.
India has not issued a response yet, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigns for the ongoing parliamentary elections to secure a third term.
“Having said that, Muizzu also knows that he cannot keep India too far away even though he aligns with China.
Over 200,000 Maldivians voted in the parliamentary elections held Sunday, with 326 candidates vying for 93 seats.
New Delhi: The Indian Ocean Region has become just a tad more challenging for New Delhi with President Mohamed Muizzu-led People’s National Congress (PNC) sweeping parliamentary elections in the Maldives on Sunday. The win signalled overwhelming support for the party’s pro-China foreign policy stance even as India readies a cautious approach to maintain the influence it enjoyed in the archipelago nation until last year.
The Maldives parliamentary elections were held months after Muizzu got elected as the President of the Indian Ocean island nation in September last year, riding on an anti-India campaign dubbed ‘India Out’. He defeated the Maldives’ ‘pro-India’ former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP).
The MDP, which had the ‘super majority’ in the parliament earlier, witnessed a crushing defeat Sunday.
The PNC won 70 out of the parliament’s 93 seats in the parliamentary polls to take full control of the Majlis (as the parliament is known in Maldives), guaranteeing a super-majority for the party.
The Maldives has become a hotbed for strategic contestation between India and China, with the geopolitics playing out in the maritime domain getting more tense than that taking place on land.
In the presidential election last year, Muizzu had stood on behalf of former President Abdulla Yameen, who is also pro-China. The latter could not contest because he faces several corruption charges and was serving an 11-year jail sentence at the time. His conviction was overturned earlier this month.
As soon as the results of the parliamentary elections were announced on Sunday, Beijing issued a statement, saying “China is willing to work with the Maldives to maintain traditional friendship (and) expand exchanges and cooperation in various fields”.
According to China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin, Beijing has decided to “continuously deepen the China-Maldives comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership” and “accelerate construction of a community with a shared future for China and the Maldives, and better benefit [for] the two peoples”.
“We congratulate the Maldives on successfully holding its parliamentary election and fully respect the choice made by the Maldivian people,” Wang added.
India has not issued a response yet, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigns for the ongoing parliamentary elections to secure a third term.
Speaking to ABPLive, Nilanthi Samaranayake, Adjunct Fellow at the Washington-based think tank East-West Center, said the “outcome of the elections suggests public support of President Muizzu’s policies, including foreign policy towards India”.
“Muizzu is likely to have greater freedom to conduct his foreign policy agenda. He has stated his desire for partnership with India albeit on renegotiated terms such as with the replacement of Indian military personnel operating aircraft with civilians,” she added. “Yet, other aspects of his plans may not be well received by India such as a potential free trade agreement with China.”
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‘History Of Relationship, Compulsion Of Geography’
Ever since coming to power, Muizzu has made sure that India removes the over 80 Indian military personnel posted in the Maldives, which consists of around 1,192 coral islands. Last month, the first batch of Indian personnel, who were deployed there for manning air assets provided to the Maldives for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) purposes, made their way back to India. The remaining will be shifted by the deadline of 10 May.
Rajiv Bhatia, veteran diplomat and Distinguished Fellow at Gateway House, said this election, “in which President Muizzu has won a landslide victory, represents that the people of Maldives are properly behind him and democracy is clearly working in that country, or, as we say, this is the dance of democracy”.
“India is now left with no choice but to accept the results. India will have to be extremely cautious and careful now because Muizzu is all powerful there now and he will steer the foreign policy of his country towards China,” he added,
Maldives, he said, “has now surely become a cause of major concern”. “But we should now put our full energy in expediting the projects that are being developed there and deliberate our policy approach towards Maldives. We should avoid antagonising Muizzu or over-indulging him and craft a middle path.
“We should keep in mind the history of the relationship and the compulsion of geography,” said Bhatia, who has formerly headed the Ministry for External Affairs division responsible for relations with the Maldives.
He added, “Indian diplomatic focus should be to complete the projects and we should complete them within the given deadline and cannot delay those any further in this charged atmosphere. And yet, we should also keep offering new projects. We should not shy away from doing that.”
Under Muizzu, the Maldives and China have vowed to deepen their strategic ties, elevating them to the level of a ‘Comprehensive Strategic Cooperative Partnership’. This was decided during Muizzu’s weeklong visit to China in January 2024, where he met Chinese President Xi Jinping. This was Muizzu’s first state visit after he assumed office on November 17, 2023.
India has given several defence platforms – from naval boats and aircraft to military choppers – to the Maldives that are engaged in HADR activities in the country.
New Delhi has gifted a Dornier aircraft and two helicopters to the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF). In May last year, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh handed over a Fast Patrol Vessel and a Landing Craft Assault ship to MNDF.
“There is a risk developing in the Indian Ocean, in India’s immediate neighbourhood, and we have to play our cards well,” said Sarabjeet Singh Parmar, former Commander in the Indian Navy.
“Having said that, Muizzu also knows that he cannot keep India too far away even though he aligns with China. He knows if any crisis hits Maldives, like it has before, India will be the first to respond,” he added. “The relationship is not dead because they know India means stability.”
Parmar also said while Muizzu has asked Indian military personnel to leave the country, in line with his election manifesto promise, the Indian assets in that island nation still remain.
“Our assets are still there. He (Muizzu) just wanted the personnel out. They know India will come to their advantage,” he added.
Over 200,000 Maldivians voted in the parliamentary elections held Sunday, with 326 candidates vying for 93 seats. The MDP won 10 seats out of the 89 they contested, according to local media reports. They had won 65 seats in the previous election.
India has spent nearly $1 billion in infrastructure development in the Maldives, which includes $500 million worth of road and bridges in Malé and two airports. India was among the first to officially recognise the Maldives after its independence in 1965. In 1988, India launched ‘Operation Cactus’ to help the Maldives prevent a coup d'état.
