Nation / Mon, 15 Apr 2024 The Indian Express

No real buzz for BJP in western UP, but Opposition seems to have failed to take note

There are few posters, hardly any visible banners, and no “Jai Shree Ram” slogans by BJP karyakartas on the streets. The Mayawati and Jayant factorsThe role of Mayawati in western UP, where the BSP has played a decisive role, is curious. AdvertisementInstead, Mayawati’s candidates have the potential to damage the BJP and help the SP more. But given the cases that hang over her head, there is speculation about why Mayawati would want to antagonise the BJP. The Jayant factor, meanwhile, has helped the BJP to largely consolidate Jats behind the party in the region.

“Yeh ekdam thanda chunaav hai (This is not an exciting election).” More than one person has this to say as I travel through Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, and Bijnor districts in west UP, where polling for the Lok Sabha elections in eight constituencies will be held on April 19.

In the past, west UP has set the tempo for the rest of the state to follow. This time it is a low-decibel election. There are few posters, hardly any visible banners, and no “Jai Shree Ram” slogans by BJP karyakartas on the streets. Unlike the last two times, this is also not a Hindu-Muslim or an India-Pakistan election and everyone says this, including the candidates.

The effects of the 2013 Muzaffarnagar communal riots cast a long shadow on the general elections the following year as Hindus consolidated in favour of the BJP. Five years later, the Pulwama attack generated a nationalistic fervour that influenced the outcome in the BJP’s favour. In comparison, this time one hears voices in west UP that say, “Bahut ho gaya Hindu-Muslim, rehna toh saath mein hai (A lot has happened over Hindu-Muslim issues, in the end, we have to co-exist).”

And yet — this too is a paradoxical reality of UP — the “Hinduisation of the subaltern classes” over the years is even more compelling than that of the upper castes and this is evident in the villages. In Bijnor’s Sikhreda village, BSP supporters — Scheduled Castes (SCs) and smaller communities such as Pals, Sainis, and Gujjars — are quite upfront. “We remain with the BSP, whether in power or not, but we will not vote for a Muslim candidate if the party has fielded one,” says one of them.

Nor is this an election where the Ram Mandir is a central poll issue in this region, surprising many. People express happiness at the construction of the long-awaited temple in Ayodhya but it is unlikely to add a hefty chunk to the vote share in the BJP’s kitty as Pulwama did. However, it adds to Modi’s appeal as the leader who made the Mandir possible when others before failed.

Though many more people this time express their dissatisfaction about economic hardship — the complaints range from “rising prices are making life hard” and “unemployment is rising” to farmers expressing dissatisfaction over MSP — they may still end up voting for the BJP as Modi dominates the narrative.

The Mayawati and Jayant factors

The role of Mayawati in western UP, where the BSP has played a decisive role, is curious. Dubbed the BJP’s “B team”, people earlier joked that Amit Shah would decide the BSP candidates and “Behen ji” would only announce the list.

Instead, Mayawati’s candidates have the potential to damage the BJP and help the SP more. For instance, in the high-profile Muzaffarnagar seat where Union Minister Sanjeev Balyan is facing the SP’s Harendra Malik, the BSP has fielded Dara Singh Prajapati whose community is part of the BJP’s support base in the region. Had she fielded a Muslim candidate, as was expected, she would have pushed her Dalit supporters to the BJP’s side and eroded some of the SP’s support base.

“Mayawati is helping the SP,” says Balyan. “It is clear from the candidates she has fielded everywhere.” Local SP leaders mention that party chief Akhilesh Yadav has spoken of how he wanted Mayawati as the PM face of the INDIA alliance had she joined it. ”Hum toh Behenji ko PM ka chehra elan kar dete (I would have declared Mayawati the PM face),” Akhilesh is learnt to have said at SP meetings.

But given the cases that hang over her head, there is speculation about why Mayawati would want to antagonise the BJP. But given that she has acquired the image of being close to the BJP, it suits the BSP chief to have her “secret understanding” with the SP bandied about, so as to give a reassuring signal to Muslims and get their support.

The Jayant factor, meanwhile, has helped the BJP to largely consolidate Jats behind the party in the region. There are some unhappy Jat voices at the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) chief’s switch around after having vowed not to become a “chawanni (25 paise coin)” that could flip. But happy or not, Jats are expected to stay by Jayant’s side. A Jat farmer atop his tractor at Jayant’s well-attended meeting in Bankipur in Bijnor seems quite pragmatic. “To get work done you need to be in government and that is a reality Jats understand.”

The importance of Adityanath

Uttar Pradesh CM Adityanath is also an important factor in this election. Everyone one meets gives the CM credit for crime control. “See that road going from here to Khatauli,” says one from a group of young Muslim men at a tea stall in Mirapur. “You couldn’t walk down it after dark without being looted or attacked, now you can move safely even at midnight.”

But this time Adityanath’s importance also lies in the rebellion by Rajputs — the community to which he belongs — who are unhappy about the party not giving tickets to some of its leaders such as former General V K Singh. The agitation is spearheaded by the “chaubisi”, a conglomerate of 24 villages in Meerut district symbolising Rajput power.

Some speculate that Rajput’s anger could not have manifested the way it has without Adityanath’s nod. The Rajputs fear the CM may be shunted to Delhi after the elections and treated like the former CMs of other states such as Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Vasundhara Raje Scindia who have been sidelined.

Like the last two times, Uttar Pradesh will once again play a pivotal role in determining the number the BJP manages to score. This is one Hindi heartland state where the BJP has the scope to improve its 2019 tally (62) by 10 seats to take it closer to its 2014 figure (71) and offset the losses elsewhere. There is no other Hindi belt state where it can make such a big jump.

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But given the voices of dissatisfaction being heard this time, the Opposition, particularly the Congress, may have failed to sense the opportunity that the state offered. As an NDA leader puts it, “There are only five days left to polling and neither Rahul Gandhi nor Priyanka Gandhi have shown up and held a single rally in west UP.”

(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 10 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of ‘How Prime Ministers Decide’)