Nation / Sat, 11 May 2024 The Indian Express

‘Regional parties coming closer to Congress’: Why Sharad Pawar said what he did

Sharad Pawar believes the Congress is on the upswing — whether or not it forms the government this time. While in the past too there have been back-channel explorations about an NCP merger with the Congress, Pawar has so far been ambiguous. However, it is not clear how many Lok Sabha seats this translates into, in the face of a depleted organisational machinery given their splits. AdvertisementBesides his own party, Pawar spoke about other regional parties coming closer to the Congress. Other regional parties that are offshoots of the old Socialist stream — like the Samajwadi Party or RJD — are also unlikely to dissolve their identities.

Sharad Pawar believes the Congress is on the upswing — whether or not it forms the government this time.

This was the upshot of the interview he gave to The Indian Express earlier this week — that given the way things were going, the regional parties will tie up more closely with the Congress in the coming months, and some of them may decide to merge in the grand old party. He suggested that one of the parties could be his own NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar).

Pawar’s words about the future shape of politics — he is a leader with half-a-century of love-hate relationship with the Congress, including time as a member the party — have come right in the midst of the 2024 general elections. The conversation took place at his hotel room after he had returned from addressing a meeting in Satara in western Maharashtra, along with leaders of his allies Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and Aam Aadmi Party.

Looking ahead at the post-poll possibilities — he said it had become “difficult to adjust (with) and digest (Narendra) Modi” — his words were as much about the future of the Congress as about the prospects of his own party. The NCP split in 2023, with his nephew Ajit Pawar taking away a major chunk of the party’s MLAs and MPs, plus its election symbol, leaving Pawar with only a handful of leaders.

While he continues to show the stomach for it, an 83-year-old Pawar is fighting with his back to the wall to retain his NCP faction’s — and his daughter Supriya Sule’s — political relevance. Clearly, he sees Sule’s future as more secure with the Congress than with the BJP.

While in the past too there have been back-channel explorations about an NCP merger with the Congress, Pawar has so far been ambiguous. The Congress too views him with wariness, given that he floated the NCP in 1999 after challenging Sonia Gandhi’s authority due to her “foreign origins”. However, just months later, Pawar joined hands with the same Sonia-led Congress to form a coalition government in Maharashtra, and has continued that alliance – underlining his pragmatism when it comes to political longevity.

Besides, while he is bearing the bulk of the weight for the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition in these Lok Sabha elections, Pawar’s eyes are set on the more important Assembly polls due in Maharashtra in October, where the MVA could have a shot at power.

The merger of the NCP in the Congress will only shore up the MVA’s prospects in the Assembly elections, and in turn benefit the NCP led by Pawar. And if, by then, he has also pulled off a win in the Baramati Lok Sabha seat — Pawar’s turf where Sule is pitted against rebel Ajit’s wife Sunetra — many who went with the nephew may return to “Saheb’s side”. The Congress is anyway a more familiar, cosy ground for them than the massive BJP.

The family dynamics remains clear. At a wedding recently in Panchgani of the nephew of an NCP (Ajit Pawar) MLA, where this reporter was also present, the who’s who of the NCP in attendance included Pawar and Ajit. Sitting on either side of the aisle, they did not exchange a word. The bride and groom first took Pawar’s blessings, and then Ajit’s.

Most of those present were unhappy that the Pawar family had got divided and the NCP had split. Many wondered if Ajit, who had “not got much” from the BJP, would return to his uncle’s side after the Lok Sabha elections.

Like Pawar, there is sympathy in Maharashtra for Uddhav Thackeray too, for how he had been “betrayed” by colleagues led by Eknath Shinde. Both the NCP (SP) and Sena (UBT) are upbeat due to this. However, it is not clear how many Lok Sabha seats this translates into, in the face of a depleted organisational machinery given their splits. In the Assembly polls though, the “betrayal” may yield better dividends.

Besides his own party, Pawar spoke about other regional parties coming closer to the Congress. However, this looks unlikely for parties floated by rebel Congress leaders such as the YSRCP led by Jagan Mohan Reddy and the Trinamool Congress headed by Mamata Banerjee. Unlike the NCP (SP), these two have replaced the Congress in their states Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal, respectively.

However, they could work more closely with the Congress if they come under greater attack from an increasingly aggressive BJP. There are reports that the Congress has given tacit support to the YSRCP in Andhra, which will vote simultaneously for the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls on May 13. While the Congress has little presence now in the state, the BJP has tied up with Andhra’s principal Opposition party, TDP.

Other regional parties that are offshoots of the old Socialist stream — like the Samajwadi Party or RJD — are also unlikely to dissolve their identities. However, they too may continue to work closely with the Congress, which may provide an overarching umbrella to smaller parties.

What is also true is that most of these parties have grown at the expense of the Congress, and will not want a revival of the Congress beyond a point which could be at their expense.

Pawar’s words, that the moment may be ripe for a Congress turnaround, will also be contingent on how the party responds to an evolving situation. Will it act like the Big Brother, as it has often done in the past, something that the regional outfits are wary of? Or will the new challenges throw up a different Congress?

In that sense, Pawar’s remarks comparing Rahul Gandhi favourably to Morarji Desai, for displaying qualities to take everyone along not shown by the late leader when he became the prime minister of a coalition government in 1977, were significant. According to Pawar, today’s situation is similar to 1977 in the sense that the PM candidate has not been decided by Opposition parties that have forged a coalition.

For a time after Independence, the Congress was an umbrella organisation, accommodating within its fold Socialists as well as leaders like Syama Prasad Mookerjee, who fell out with Jawaharlal Nehru and went on to launch the Bharatiya Jan Sangh (the precursor to the BJP) in 1951. The rise of Modi in 2014, and the move towards a one-party dominance by a “new BJP”, has posed challenges of the kind that the Congress has struggled to handle.

While the BJP has emerged as a party around one leader, can the Congress now fashion itself into a federated party, where its state bosses, as well as alliance partners, have autonomy of functioning? Can this happen under the leadership of the Nehru-Gandhi family?

These are some of the questions that Pawar’s interview have thrown up. But, politics being a game of numbers, ultimately everything will depend on “kaun kitne paani mein hai (who wins what)”. And June 4 will give us some clues, if not answers.