The India Meteorological Department (IMD) Wednesday said the southwest monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to take place on May 31, with a possible weather model deviation of four days.
The monsoon onset over Kerala marks the beginning of the four-month long chief monsoon season over India.
AdvertisementQuantitatively, rainfall is expected to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (880mm as per 1971 – 2020 data).
Quantitatively, it is expected to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (880mm as per 1971 – 2020 data).
In the past one decade, the realised monsoon onset over Kerala was marked in May during 2017, 2018 and 2022.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) Wednesday said the southwest monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to take place on May 31, with a possible weather model deviation of four days.
The climatological normal date for the onset over this southern state is June 1, with a standard deviation of seven days.
The monsoon onset over Kerala marks the beginning of the four-month long chief monsoon season over India. The country receives over 70 per cent of its annual rainfall during the June-September period. Rainfall during these months replenish the reservoir stocks, groundwater reserves and are vital for rain-fed kharif cultivation in the country.
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Quantitatively, rainfall is expected to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (880mm as per 1971 – 2020 data). Quantitatively, rainfall is expected to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (880mm as per 1971 – 2020 data).
This year, the Met department has forecast ‘above’ normal rainfall over the country during the upcoming season. Quantitatively, it is expected to be 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (880mm as per 1971 – 2020 data).
Also read | Southwest monsoon to advance into South Andaman Sea by May 19: IMD
Earlier this week, the IMD had said that the monsoon advance over the south Andaman Sea, Nicobar islands and parts of Bay of Bengal was expected around May 19, which is approximately two days ahead of the normal date for this region.
YEAR ACTUAL ONSET DATE FORECAST ONSET DATE 2005 07-June 10-June 2006 26-May 30-May 2007 28-May 24-May 2008 31-May 29-May 2009 23-May 26-May 2010 31-May 30-May 2011 29-May 31-May 2012 05-June 01-June 2013 01-June 03-June 2014 06-June 05-June 2015 05-June 30-May 2016 08-June 07-June 2017 30-May 30-May 2018 29-May 29-May 2019 08-June 06-June 2020 01-June 05-June 2021 03-June 31-May 2022 29-May 27-May 2023 08-Jun 04-June
Satellite images from over the past few days have shown cloud bands reorganising themselves along the equator. This cloud band is known as the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is crucial for bringing rainfall over the country. During the southwest monsoon season, the ITCZ shifts north or southward along India and influences the winds that bring rainfall over the country.
In the past one decade, the realised monsoon onset over Kerala was marked in May during 2017, 2018 and 2022.
