The Nifty breaching 21,710 will spark a selloff among the bulls, as it would trigger the stops and quant trades.
Story continues below Advertisement Remove AdTime mapThe time map of the week ahead is showing signs of negativity.
We had said that Venus would emerge strong after the fall last week, that there would be a strong recovery, which we saw on Friday.
Slow and steady declining prices will hurt day traders.
April 25, 2024: Thursday: K.2: Vishakha: bad dayTechnical charts would generate misleading signals, and day traders would incur more losses than usual.
Sectors like IT, auto, banks, natural resources and power will remain in focus in the coming week.
Stockology is a weekly column by futurologist Mahesh Gowande. He is the Founder and Director of Ayan Analytics, which has developed ZodiacAnalyst, a research software with time and price charting tools.
Read previous columns here.
Story continues below Advertisement Remove Ad
Review
As expected, the market declined around 3 percent before making a recovery. Technology has corrected more compared to other sectors, while chemical and select midcaps have shown better performance. The Friday recovery was not a good sign. The movement during the week was aligned with expectations.
Technical
Individual investors and traders do not have the resources, while funds are garnering SIP inflows, due to which they get active whenever there is a big decline in the markets. But finally, fundamentals will catch up.
The Nifty breaching 21,710 will spark a selloff among the bulls, as it would trigger the stops and quant trades. On Friday, markets opened near 21,861, declined to 21,770, and recovered to close at 22,147.
When markets rise, there will be sellers who got trapped and are now looking for an exit at minimum losses. Levels near 21,950 will remain crucial for the bullish camp, whereas a close below 21,900 will confirm weakness and trigger further fall towards 20,700. However, on the upside, 22,600 remains the stop loss for short sellers who are likely to add more shorts with each rise.
Story continues below Advertisement Remove Ad
Time map
The time map of the week ahead is showing signs of negativity. As we have already mentioned, we're likely to see selling pressure at higher levels.
No major planetary aspects are lined up till the end of the month. Next week is going to be dominated by the position of the Sun and the Moon, which is a negative.
The auto and bank indices are showing positive signs, while the chemical sector is showing signs of bottoming out. On the other hand, the tech sector is waiting for its last hammering as we believe the market will need more consolidation.
Mars will become weak after 23rd April, meaning that the bear camp will see the advantage of Mars in watery signs. We had said that Venus would emerge strong after the fall last week, that there would be a strong recovery, which we saw on Friday. However, Venus will again turn weak after 24th April.
Hence, we have advised reducing leveraged positions, cutting market exposure for some time, and being selective and focussed on a concentrated portfolio.
Moving ahead to our weekly pattern:
April 22, 2024: Monday: S.14: Hasta: auspicious day
The market will see a gap down opening, and further selling would push indices even lower. Market sentiment would be cautious, and turn negative by the end of the day. Slow and steady declining prices will hurt day traders. Patience pays, so do not chase prices. Stick to your terms and you will get the price you want. SIP in ETFs is highly recommended by the end of the day.
April 23, 2024: Tuesday: Poornima: Chitra: gap opening
Gaps play an important role in the charts, especially ones formed under the influence of Nakshatra Chitra, i.e., when the Moon or the Sun play a part in it. A gap down opening will confirm that the market has further downside, while gap up will indicate that the fall is limited. Momentum breakout indicators will give the best results. Private Banks and MNCs will hog the limelight.
April 24, 2024: Wednesday: K.1: Swati: focussed investment
Tithi 1 will be a dominating force which extends its influence, and will help in a strong recovery in the IT index. Big ticket investment is highly recommended.
April 25, 2024: Thursday: K.2: Vishakha: bad day
Technical charts would generate misleading signals, and day traders would incur more losses than usual. In derivatives, liquidation and sell-offs cannot be ruled out. Selling is highly recommended.
April 26, 2024: Friday: K.3: Anuradha: auspicious day
The tithi is bullish, and the nakshatra is good for speculative positions. Wisdom and experience will rule the day, and well-informed trades can be executed at scale, which can be highly rewarding. Natural resource and power stocks will do well, and the metal pack will dominate the day.
