(File Photo) RJD won just three seats despite a spirited campaign by former deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav.
The BJP got a vote share of 20.5% – a 3.5% fall from 2019.
The decline for the JD(U) was 3.75%, to around 18.52% of the vote share this time.
In fact, the RJD’s vote share improvement was close to the cumulative decline recorded by the BJP and JD(U).
We continue to command a far higher vote share than the JD(U).
The NDA may have performed better in Bihar than Uttar Pradesh, winning 31 of the 40 seats in the state, but its vote share has dipped significantly, with victory margins of its candidates shrinking considerably.
Also, while the JD(U) recorded a better strike rate than the BJP in Bihar – it lost only four of its 16 seats, compared to the BJP’s five out of 17, thus emerging as a kingmaker at the Centre – its vote share has shrunk more than that of the BJP.
In contrast, the RJD, which won just four seats despite a spirited campaign by former deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav, has increased its vote share by over 6%, compared to 2019.
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These trends could be a signal of things to come in the 2025 Assembly polls in Bihar, where the JD(U)’s newfound importance within the NDA could be tested against its popularity on the ground. Across caste lines, voices on the ground suggest that Nitish did not enjoy the popularity he once did in the state, and the electorate may look for alternatives in 2025.
In 2019, the BJP-JD(U)-LJP combine won 25 seats with a victory margin of over 2 lakh votes. Of these, the NDA won by 3 lakh or more votes in 13 seats. This year, they won by over 2 lakh votes in only two seats – Araria and Muzaffarpur.
RJD won just three seats despite a spirited campaign by former deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav. (File Photo) RJD won just three seats despite a spirited campaign by former deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav. (File Photo)
The smallest victory margin was recorded in Saran, where the BJP’s Rajiv Pratap Rudy defeated Lalu Prasad’s daughter Rohini Acharya by just over 13,600 votes. The highest victory margin was recorded in Muzaffarpur, where the BJP’s Raj Bhushan Chaudhary won by nearly 2.35 lakh votes, against the Congress’s Ajay Nishad.
The significant dip in margins was reflected in the vote shares of the parties. The BJP got a vote share of 20.5% – a 3.5% fall from 2019. The decline for the JD(U) was 3.75%, to around 18.52% of the vote share this time.
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The LJP, which contested one less seat but won all five of its five constituencies, also saw a fall in vote share but by a smaller degree – from 8% in 2019 to 6.5% now.
On the other hand, the RJD, which garnered around 15.7% of the votes in 2019, has improved its vote share to 22.14%, emerging as the single-largest party in Bihar in terms of vote share, and going up from zero to four in seats. In fact, the RJD’s vote share improvement was close to the cumulative decline recorded by the BJP and JD(U).
The Congress, which contested in alliance with the RJD, like in 2019, also improved on its vote share, though marginally, from 7.9% in 2019 to 9.2% now.
“The difference in strike rates of the BJP and JD(U) is not a statement on the popularity of the two parties in the state. We continue to command a far higher vote share than the JD(U). Yes, our candidate selection was not good, because of which we lost a few seats,” said a senior BJP leader in the state.
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According to the leader, the JD(U), in fact gained from the alliance more, with PM Modi’s name helping it “an anti-incumbency undercurrent”. “The real difference was the Opposition putting up a good fight by giving tickets to many non-Yadav OBC candidates, which disrupted our electoral calculations.”
A JD(U) leader, however, insisted that the results were proof of the enduring popularity of the Nitish government’s schemes for the women and poor. “This victory also underlined that Nitish Kumar can’t be ignored within the NDA. The 2025 polls are still far away, and political alignments are not the same as in 2020,” the leader said.
In the 2020 Assembly elections, the JD(U) had fallen to 43 seats, from over 70 in 2015. This put it far behind both the RJD (the first-placed after the election results) and BJP. JD(U) leaders had blamed it at the time on “sabotage” from within the NDA, with the LJP (which fought separately in Bihar) fielding its nominees against all JD(U) candidates.
