What state elections in Maha, Haryana, Jharkhand will see if exit poll trends hold

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll projected Modi 3.0. As the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance braces itself for 361 to 401 seats-- in line with its “400 paar” ambition-- state-wise predictions show interesting insights for polls due later this year in Maharashtra, Haryana, and Jharkhand. The NDA, as per Axis My India, has ceded space to the Opposition in these states.

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Despite this, in all these states, either the BJP or the NDA still retains its number one party/alliance position despite myriad challenges like the Jat anger in Haryana, sympathy for the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha after Hemant Soren’s arrest, and a battle of legacy (for the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party) in Maharashtra. In fact, in Haryana and Maharashtra, the BJP/NDA will battle a two-term anti-incumbency while in Jharkhand it hopes to dislodge the INDIA bloc government.

The orientation in state polls becomes local and the premium that Prime Minister Narendra Modi fetches in national elections also dwindles to a certain extent.

Maharashtra

In Maharashtra, the NDA is expected to win 30 seats and INDIA 18 seats, as per the India Today-Axis My India exit poll. This translates into a loss of 11 seats for the NDA in a contest projected between the asli and the nakli, two factions of Shiv Sena and the NCP.

While BJP is expected to win 21 seats, and the Shiv Sena nine, Uddhav Thackeray’s faction is expected to bag 10 seats. The Congress and NCP (Sharad Pawar) are slated to win four seats each. This may create tensions within the alliance with NCP and Congress votes transferring to Uddhav Thackeray’s party but the vice versa not happening.

While the loss is along the expected lines, it is smaller than what was anticipated. In terms of vote share the gap is closer, with the NDA expected to bag 46 per cent vote share (-5 per cent) and the INDIA bloc 43 per cent (+11 per cent).

The Shiv Sena in 2019 recorded a vote share of 24 per cent. This time, the two factions, Eknath Shinde’s and Uddhav Thackeray’s, are expected to bag 13 per cent and 20 per cent respectively. In 2019, before the party splintered, the Shiv Sena contested 23 seats. In 2024, both factions together contested 36 seats — 15 and 21 respectively. This has led to an increase in the combined vote share to 33 per cent versus 24 per cent in 2019.

Shiv Sena (Uddhav) is expected to do relatively better this time, but this may not be an indicator of who the true heir of Bal Thackeray is, as the faction seems to have benefitted from the transfer of minority community votes from the Congress and the NCP (Sharad Pawar). Thus, this question is not settled yet.

In the 2019 Vidhan Sabha elections, the unified Shiv Sena lost a vote share of eight per cent. The BJP lost two per cent. This was largely due to the local nature of polls and the declining effect of the Modi factor. Meanwhile, the NCP-Congress combine held onto their vote shares.

So the Vidhan Sabha polls are quite open, and Lok Sabha trends do not give any advantage to either the NDA or the INDIA bloc. However, it also shows that the BJP is no pushover.

Haryana

In Haryana, the NDA is expected to win seven seats and the INDIA bloc three, as per the exit poll. This translates into a loss of three seats for the NDA. While the loss is along expected lines, it is also not as severe as claimed by the Opposition. The INDIA bloc, of course, has significantly recovered lost ground, exploiting the anger within the influential Jat community.

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In terms of vote share, the gap is close, with the NDA expected to bag a 48 per cent vote share (-10 per cent) and the INDIA bloc 44 per cent (+16 per cent). The lead is just four per cent. In an increasingly bipolar election, the Jannayak Janta Party and other smaller parties will be marginalised, recording a loss of seven per cent vote share. The Congress is expected to consolidate the anti-BJP vote in the state and also pull Jat voters.

In the 2019 Vidhan Sabha polls, the BJP lost 22 per cent vote share compared to Lok Sabha, which was largely grabbed by the JJP (10 per cent) and smaller parties/Independents (+12 per cent). It couldn’t get a simple majority and formed a post-poll alliance with the JJP.

The momentum here is with the Congress party. With PM Modi not on the ticket, and a highly localised election, the BJP risks losing further votes. Its hope hinges on two factors:

advertisement If the loss of BJP’s vote share is lapped up by the JJP or the Indian National Lok Dal to some extent, leading to division of votes, Jat voters (27 per cent of the population) get split between the Congress, JJP, and INLD, as the contest becomes local

Consolidation of non-Jat votes in favour of the BJP, exploiting the deep lines between Jats and non-Jats.

Jharkhand

In Jharkhand, the NDA is expected to win nine seats and the INDIA bloc five seats per the exit poll. This translates into a loss of three seats for the NDA.

The NDA is expected to bag a 50 per cent vote share (-6 per cent), while the INDIA bloc is expected to bag a 41 per cent vote share (+9 per cent). This is largely due to sympathy for Hemant Soren after his arrest, anti-incumbency against some sitting MPs of the BJP, and the consolidation of Scheduked Tribe votes (26 per cent) in favour of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-Congress alliance (INDIA bloc).

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In the 2019 Vidhan Sabha polls, the BJP lost a significant vote share of 23 per cent as the contest became local and the party suffered anti-incumbency against the Raghubar Das government. Ally All Jharkhand Students Union contested separately bagging an eight per cent vote share. Even adjusting for this, the NDA lost 15 per cent vote share in the state.

Before Soren’s arrest, the BJP was hopeful of making a comeback in the state, exploiting the natural anti-incumbency and alleged corruption scams. However, arresting Soren may have made him a martyr, at least in the eyes of his community members. His arrest is being linked by JMM as an attack on Adivasi Asmita.

The improvement in vote share of the INDIA bloc in 2024 portends a tough contest in the Vidhan Sabha polls due late 2024.

(Views expressed in this opinion piece are those of the author)

Published By: Sudeep Lavania Published On: Jun 2, 2024

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