Why is PM Modi skipping the SCO Summit in Kazakhstan? Read to know more-

India’s priorities at the upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Astana are deeply rooted in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of SECURE, which stands for Security, Economic development, Connectivity, Unity, Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and Environmental protection. This vision will guide the Indian delegation, led by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, at the 24th meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of State on July 4.

PM Modi will not attend the SCO Summit in Kazakhstan. What could be the possible reasons?

In an exclusive conversation with FinancialExpress.com, Prof Rajan Kumar, School of International Studies, JNU opines: “ This is an interesting development because PM Modi attended five previous SCO summits regularly. The complication started because of two significant factors: India’s strained ties with China following the border clashes in 2020 and the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022. While Prime Minister Modi attended the SCO Summit at Samarkand in September 2022, India somewhat downgraded its involvement and engagement afterwards, reflecting a more cautious and reserved stance.”

Also Read Reshuffling command: Changes under new Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi India successfully test-fires new generation anti-radiation missile ‘Rudram-1’ New Indian Army Chief, General Upendra Dwivedi emphasizes on modernization and self-reliance to tackle future challenges Battle tank comparison: India’s T-90 tanks vs China’s ZTZ-99A MBTs

Also Read Jaishankar to represent India at SCO Summit in Astana on July 3-4

The official reason given for the PM’s absence is that the dates clash with the ongoing session of the parliament. However, that sounds unconvincing because Astana is not far from Delhi, and the parliament session is not facing any crisis. Further, PM Modi is expected to visit Russia and Austria from July 8 to July 10.

Is there a shift in India’s Policy towards the SCO?

Some experts contend that there is a shift in India’s policy towards the SCO. India was expected to host the SCO Summit in 2023. Preparations were made for the physical Summit, but towards the end, New Delhi decided to have a virtual summit.

“This year PM Modi will not be attending the Summit in Kazakhstan. Therefore, India’s approach demonstrates a pattern of caution and restraint. India is taking a measured and deliberate approach, keeping in mind its strategic calculations and geopolitical implications. After Kazakhstan, China will assume the rotating Chair of the SCO in 2025. And the issue of PM Modi’s participation will crop up again in 2025. Reciprocity is a critical part of diplomatic behaviour, and New Delhi may still remember that President Xi Jinping was absent at the G20 Summit in Delhi in 2023,” explains Prof Rajan.

According to him the above developments have sparked the speculation that New Delhi has downgraded its ties with the SCO. Experts hint at two possible reasons: the pressure from Washington to avoid an organisation that is viewed as anti-Western and New Delhi’s deliberate attempt to exercise restraint in an organisation dominated by China. “In my view, it is the second factor that explains the case better. Washington would definitely like New Delhi to dissociate itself from the SCO, but India would have sustained the pressure if its ties with China were cordial. For instance, despite intense pressure, New Delhi did not downgrade its ties with Russia. In fact, PM Modi is expected to visit Russia on July 8 for the first time in 5 years. His visit would raise alarms in Washington and European capitals, but New Delhi is willing to take that risk given the priority that it accords to Moscow. By visiting Moscow, it wants to reassure Russia that the ties between the two states are not ‘drifting’ aside,” Prof Rajan explains.

Also Read Modi and Tokayev Reaffirm Commitment to Regional Cooperation ahead of SCO Summit

How important is the SCO for India?

For Central Asian states, the SCO is the most critical Eurasian organisation. There are other regional organisations, such as the CSTO and the Eurasian Union, where Russia is the key player. There are cross-cutting interests, but the SCO remains the most important organisation. It has played a vital role in minimising border disputes, reassuring Central Asian states that their sovereignty will not be violated, maintaining a regional balance and curbing the influence of radicalism, drug trafficking and terrorism.

In his opinion, Central Asian states want India to be active in the SCO as it allows them to counterbalance both China and Russia. Therefore, India should remain active in the organisation irrespective of its diplomatic disputes with China and Pakistan. “We have several bilateral and multilateral forums to deal with China, but the same cannot be said about Central Asian states. Therefore, the SCO should not become a victim of Sino-India rivalry.”

According to him, India’s active engagement ensures that the SCO will not become an anti-West security organisation. Central Asian states also view the SCO as a non-Western regional forum, not a forum against the West. Further, if India becomes less active, China will remain the sole economic player. And this would be detrimental to India’s calculations. The SCO can also play a role in Afghanistan, where India has vital stakes. Recently, Kazakhstan removed the Taliban from the list of terrorist organisations, and Russia can do the same in the near future. Afghanistan has an observer status but has not been invited to recent summits.

What is the importance of Central Asian States?

Central Asian states are important for connectivity, resources and security reasons. New Delhi is keen to develop strong ties with Central Asia but does not participate in the frameworks initiated by China. It has initiated its own framework for the India-Central Asia Summit. As an alternative strategy, it might become more active in the Eurasian Union by signing the FTA.

What are the new agendas to be discussed at the Atana summit?

Apart from reiterating the existing issues of radicalism, terrorism, separatism, and drug trafficking, the Summit will reflect upon ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. Barring Pakistan, the SCO has a pro-Russia stance on the Russia-Ukraine war, and therefore, it might reiterate its call for a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

Kazakhstan has proposed an SCO Initiative On World Unity for Just Peace and Harmony during the Astana summit. The idea is to discuss ways to resolve conflicts in the region. Kazakhstan has strong ties with China, and this initiative aligns with China’s Global Security Initiative. However, this initiative will be wishful thinking because the West is unwilling to accept any such initiative.

Further, Belarus is expected to become a member of the SCO at the Astana summit.

Kazakhstan is a vital player in China’s BRI, so China attaches special importance to this Summit. The BRI was first announced in Kazakhstan in 2013. The two countries have trade ties of about $40 billion, and they have agreed to build bilateral relations in the next ‘golden 30 years’. The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, will also be discussed in bilateral meetings between Presidents Xi Jinping and Kassym Tokaev.

Reviewing Two Decades of SCO Activities

A key agenda item for the summit is to review the SCO’s activities over the past two decades. Leaders from member states will evaluate the organization’s achievements and discuss the prospects for enhanced multilateral cooperation.

In an official statement, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) highlighted that the meeting would also address pressing regional and international issues, reinforcing the SCO’s role in fostering stability and development in the region.

SCO’s Broader Goals

The SCO Summit will also focus on promoting effective cooperation in various fields such as politics, trade, economy, science and technology, culture, education, energy, transportation, and environmental protection. Strengthening mutual confidence and good-neighbourly relations among member countries remains a core objective. The summit aims to maintain peace, security, and stability in the region while moving towards a more democratic, just, and rational political and economic international order.