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Business / Sun, 21 Apr 2024 The Economic Times

RIL Q4 Preview: Street eyes strong revenue, EBITDA growth despite likely fall in profit

Net profit for the quarter, meanwhile, is likely to drop up to 7% year-on-year, while rising 2% on a quarter-on-quarter basis.The diversified conglomerate is likely to see a strong growth in its retail and telecom business. Retail EBITDA is likely to remain strong and show a growth of 28% year-on-year on higher footfalls. While Reliance Jio may see 2% rise in EBITDA quarter-on-quarter, the retail EBITDA is likely to grow just over 1% quarter-on-quarter. We expect O2C EBITDA to fall 8% year-on-year on weak refining and petchem.NomuraWe estimate O2C EBITDA to be around Rs 15600 crore, an increase of 11% quarter-on-quarter, underpinned by a strong increase in refining margins, while petchem remains broadly steady. Jio’s EBITDA is likely to be around Rs 13,600 crore, underpinned by strong EoP subscriber additions of 10.5 million, albeit ARPUs will remain steady quarter-on-quarter.

ICICI Securities

Nuvama

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Oil-to-telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd RIL ) is expected to report healthy numbers for the quarter ended March 2024, driven by robust O2C business and healthy growth in the consumer-facing businesses of Jio and retail.The company will announce its quarterly numbers on April 22 and the Board will also consider approving a dividend for FY24.Revenue from operations for the fourth quarter are expected to grow up to 12% year-on-year, according to an average estimate of four brokerages.Consolidated EBITDA for the quarter is seen increasing 3% sequentially and 9% year-on-year to Rs 41,900 crore. Net profit for the quarter, meanwhile, is likely to drop up to 7% year-on-year, while rising 2% on a quarter-on-quarter basis.The diversified conglomerate is likely to see a strong growth in its retail and telecom business. Retail EBITDA is likely to remain strong and show a growth of 28% year-on-year on higher footfalls. JIO's EBITDA is likely to surge 13% year-on-year.In the preceding December quarter, RIL reported a 9 growth in consolidated net profit at Rs 17,265 crore, while revenue from operations jumped nearly 4% to Rs 2.28 lakh croreHere's what analysts expect from RIL's Q4:RIL is likely to see strong quarter for its oil-to-chemicals business with an estimated $1/bbl QoQ improvement in GRMs (gross refined margins. While Reliance Jio may see 2% rise in EBITDA quarter-on-quarter, the retail EBITDA is likely to grow just over 1% quarter-on-quarter. Consolidated EBITDA for the reporting quarter may rise 5% quarter-on-quarter.EBITDA for the quarter is likely to grow 8% year-on-year mainly due to robust show across all verticals partially offset by weak O2C. We expect O2C EBITDA to fall 8% year-on-year on weak refining and petchem.NomuraWe estimate O2C EBITDA to be around Rs 15600 crore, an increase of 11% quarter-on-quarter, underpinned by a strong increase in refining margins, while petchem remains broadly steady. We factor in upstream EBITDA of Rs 5600 crore, a decline of 4% quarter-on-quarter, as modestly higher volumes would be offset by sequentially higher opex.We expect RIL to continue to deliver healthy growth across its consumer-facing businesses. Jio’s EBITDA is likely to be around Rs 13,600 crore, underpinned by strong EoP subscriber additions of 10.5 million, albeit ARPUs will remain steady quarter-on-quarter.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

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