Also read: Iran-Israel war may push crude to above $100 per barrel; can trigger panic selling, volatility in equity marketsThe week aheadIs evenly poised between bulls and bears, though bears have a little more advantage.
Nakshatra Ashwini – April 13th to April 27th.
The Sun's transit through the nakshatra Ashwini, which resides in the sign of Aries and is ruled by Ketu, signifies movement and new beginnings, particularly in the realm of transportation, such as automobiles.
Individuals born under Ashwini nakshatra often exhibit positive energy, curiosity, quick decision-making abilities, and high levels of enthusiasm, but they can also be prone to mood swings.
Gut-feel and leading indicators (those slightly ahead of the market trend), under Ketu's influence, can often be relied on for trading decisions.
The upside move is restricted, and downside has little more extra space, logically to be light on bullish positions.
Stockology is a weekly column by futurologist Mahesh Gowande. He is the Founder and Director of Ayan Analytics, which has developed ZodiacAnalyst, a research software with time and price charting tools.
Read previous columns here
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Review
We were expecting last Friday (April 12) to erase all the weekly gains, in fact, even a negative close could not be ruled out. The markets crashed on that day, but closed nominally positive by just 6 points. A four-day week is a pain, as it shifts the action. We noticed metals getting back in the limelight, and tech stocks getting hammered, while banks broadly held steady.
Technicals
With negative signals on the charts, we would recommend reducing leveraged exposure first, trimming high beta stocks, and holding 15 to 20 percent cash. Global currency risk is increasing month on month, and it is best to hedge the USD by investing in gold and silver. Earlier too, we've mentioned that bullion is looking attractive.
Also read: Dalal Street Week Ahead: Q4 earnings, China GDP, oil prices among 10 key factors to keep traders busy next week
We expect the bull trend will also trigger corrective waves, which may shave 1,100-1,800 points from the Nifty. Indeed, we may soon see 21,770 levels, and maybe even 20,700. The deeper the correction, the higher the upside. In the coming week itself, we may see a 3 percent drop in the index.
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ZodiacAnalyst
45-degree escape angle
Taking an 18-month view, our proprietary tool shows that the Nifty is trading above the 45-degree angle of 2021, 2023, and 2024 (see the chart above). But now there is an intersection of the 2023 and 2024 trajectories, forming a triangle, and currently the Nifty is within this. In April 2026 , if prices go above this it would mean that the Nifty will gain another 20 to 30 percent within 18 months.
However, the intersection also acts as a major reversal, and may trigger a 7-10 percent correction, and then resume its journey upwards.
Time map
The Sun is in Ashwini between April 13th to 27th, a very good time to reshuffle the portfolio and take a few positions.
Venus is the planet of wealth, or Laxmi. As long as it is strong or exalted, we won’t see much wealth destruction. The positivity will hold it till 27th, but get volatile thereafter.
Also read: Iran-Israel war may push crude to above $100 per barrel; can trigger panic selling, volatility in equity markets
The week ahead
Is evenly poised between bulls and bears, though bears have a little more advantage. The markets are turning more cautious and the bull camp also looks slightly tired. We are expecting a negative weekly closing. The upside is restricted, while the downside has a little more room. The auto index looks positive, along with many midcap (auto?) ancillary stocks. Technology and bank stocks are showing negative movement in the coming week.
Weekly view
April 15, 2024: Monday: S.7: Punervasu: good till 12 noon
A slight negative opening and slow recovery is expected pre-lunch. We may see further selling pressure thereafter, and expect markets to remain subdued. STBT (sell today, buy tomorrow) is recommended. Contrarian trade can be rewarding.
April 16, 2024: Tuesday: S.8-9: Pushya: auspicious day.
Market sentiment will be negative, and a flat opening is expected. The second half could be bullish and a recovery in many stocks cannot be ruled out. BTST is recommended. Metals and private banks will hog the limelight on Thursday.
April 18, 2024: Thursday: S.10: Ashlesha: bullish day.
Momentum breakout and failure pattern trading would give the best results. Natural resources and metals will be in the limelight, and those short on metals would be squeezed to death. Ashlesha means a complete trap, in case you are on the wrong foot. Get out ASAP. STBT.
April 19, 2024: Friday: S.11: Magha: choppy day.
Relaxed sentiment, low energy levels – participants would prefer to remain on the sidelines. The lack of positive news would be the prime reason for market wariness.
Nakshatra Ashwini – April 13th to April 27th.
This is the first nakshatra.
Its symbol is a horse's head.
It's deities are the Ashwin twins.
Ketu is the lord of the planet. Its position in the zodiac is that of the sign Aries — 0 to 13.20 degrees.
The Sun's transit through the nakshatra Ashwini, which resides in the sign of Aries and is ruled by Ketu, signifies movement and new beginnings, particularly in the realm of transportation, such as automobiles.
Individuals born under Ashwini nakshatra often exhibit positive energy, curiosity, quick decision-making abilities, and high levels of enthusiasm, but they can also be prone to mood swings. They're ambitious and are naturally active. With the Sun exalted in this nakshatra, their optimism and willingness to take risks often leads to success. They tend to be open about their vulnerabilities, fostering trust and a connection with others.
Despite these positive traits, they may struggle with aggression and a tendency to repeat mistakes due to immaturity. Their fiery nature can strain relationships.
Investing during Ashwini's transit is considered auspicious. Index stocks often experience significant corrections, presenting opportunities for aggressive investment. This nakshatra is particularly favourable for startups, venture funds, and businesses related to racing, animal husbandry, and agriculture.
Ashwini is among the top five nakshatras for investment, with high-beta counters showing considerable fluctuation, and pattern-trading proving effective. Gut-feel and leading indicators (those slightly ahead of the market trend), under Ketu's influence, can often be relied on for trading decisions. Technology and media sectors often witness profit booking during this time.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
