Tuesday , Sept. 24, 2024, 10:51 p.m.
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Business / Tue, 18 Jun 2024 Moneycontrol

Technical View: Nifty needs to sustain above 23,500 for further upward journey, given VIX at comfortable levels

Nifty UptrendThe Nifty 50 extended its northward journey amid consolidation for the fifth consecutive day, closing above the 23,500 mark for the first time on June 18. The index remained above 23,500 almost throughout the session, finally ending at a new closing high of 23,558, up 92.3 points or 0.39 percent. The weekly options data indicated that 23,600-23,800 is likely to be the next immediate resistance range for the Nifty, with support at 23,400. On the Call side, the 24,000 strike holds the maximum open interest, followed by the 23,800 and 23,500 strikes, with maximum writing at the 24,000 strike, and then the 23,800 and 23,600 strikes. On the Put side, the maximum open interest is observed at the 23,000 strike, followed by the 23,400 and 23,500 strikes, with maximum writing at the 23,500 strike, and then the 23,000 and 23,200 strikes.

Nifty Uptrend

The Nifty 50 extended its northward journey amid consolidation for the fifth consecutive day, closing above the 23,500 mark for the first time on June 18. Overall, the index has gained in eight out of nine straight sessions since June 5. Considering the technical structure, including the continuation of higher highs formation with a positive bias in momentum indicators, the trend is expected to remain positive, barring intermittent consolidation and profit booking. Experts suggest that the index is likely to march towards 24,000 provided it sustains above the 23,500-23,400 area.

The Nifty 50 opened positively at 23,571 and hit a new high of 23,579. The index remained above 23,500 almost throughout the session, finally ending at a new closing high of 23,558, up 92.3 points or 0.39 percent. It formed a Doji kind of candlestick pattern (not a classical one) for another session, indicating indecision among bulls and bears, while trading volumes remained below average for six days in a row.

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"Normally, such Doji formations after a reasonable upmove or at new swing highs signal caution for longs at the highs. But, having formed this pattern amidst a range movement, the negative prediction of this pattern could be less," Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, said.

He feels the short-term trend of Nifty continues to be positive with range-bound action.

"Having sustained above the hurdle of 23,515 levels (1.382 percent Fibonacci extension), one may expect Nifty to move towards the next resistance of 1.786 percent Fibonacci extension at 23,950 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 23,450," Nagaraj added.

The weekly options data indicated that 23,600-23,800 is likely to be the next immediate resistance range for the Nifty, with support at 23,400.

On the Call side, the 24,000 strike holds the maximum open interest, followed by the 23,800 and 23,500 strikes, with maximum writing at the 24,000 strike, and then the 23,800 and 23,600 strikes. On the Put side, the maximum open interest is observed at the 23,000 strike, followed by the 23,400 and 23,500 strikes, with maximum writing at the 23,500 strike, and then the 23,000 and 23,200 strikes.

Bank Nifty

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The Bank Nifty maintained above all key moving averages and formed a bullish candlestick pattern with a lower shadow on the daily timeframe, indicating buying interest at lower levels. The index rallied 439 points or 0.88 percent to 50,441.

The index finally broke out of the resistance mark of 50,200 and managed to close above it. The bullish momentum is likely to continue, potentially driving the index higher towards the 51,000 mark, Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities, said.

He feels the undertone remains extremely bullish and recommended a buy approach with strong support at the 49,700 mark.

Meanwhile, volatility remained below the 200-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average), making the bulls strong, though it snapped a five-day losing streak. The India VIX, the fear gauge, was up 1.11 percent at 12.97, increasing from 12.82 levels.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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